The next few months will see an increase in global oil demand as fuel consumption will rise in the summer driving season, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Reuters, adding that this expected rebound was factored in OPEC+’s decision to begin adding supply to the market from April.
“Oil demand will grow during the driving season,” said Novak, who is Russia’s top oil official and represents the country at the OPEC+ talks and meetings.
Last week, Novak said that OPEC+ could reverse the oil production increase after April if market imbalances occur. The group could “always play in the other direction” if necessary to stabilize the market, the official added.
OPEC+ decided to begin easing the cuts in April 2025, due to expectations of seasonal growth in oil demand with the start of the spring and summer road trips, according to the Russian deputy prime minister.
Currently, there is a case to restore some supply, due to rising demand in the spring, Novak said last week.
However, OPEC+ will monitor the market and if it finds balances tipping to oversupply “we can always play in the other direction,” the Russian official added.
OPEC itself sees robust oil demand growth for both 2025 and 2026. The cartel left its demand outlook unchanged in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) this week. OPEC sees global oil demand growing by 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) in each of 2025 and 2026.
The International Energy Agency’s monthly report, however, was bearish, as it has been typical of the IEA on oil demand for several years. The Paris-based agency expects growth in global oil demand to be just over 1 million bpd this year, reaching 103.9 million bpd.
While this would be an acceleration from the estimated 830,000 bpd growth in 2024, the IEA predicts in its current balances that global oil supply may exceed demand by around 600,000 bpd this year.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
More Top Reads From Oilprice.com