With all thirty-seven songs competing in the Eurovision Song Contest 2025, Sweden remains the favourite to take victory this May in Basel, Switzerland.
With “Maman” revealed as the final song competing in the 69th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest, we look at who is favourite to take victory in Switzerland in May. Sweden remains on top with the betting public, with an over 25% chance of victory on May 17.
It is important to reflect that a lot can change between now and the contest in May. Looking back at the same time in 2024, Nemo who would go on to take victory, was fourth favourite with an 8% chance of victory, while Croatia was the bookmakers favourite. Among the top ten favourites to win Mustii from Belgium who was 6th favourite to win, would finish 13th in his Semi-Final and fail to qualify.
Austria remains the closest of the chasing pack behind Sweden, with “Wasted Love” having a 16.2% chance of victory. In third is Israel’s Yuval Raphael on a 9.9% chance of victory, followed closely by France just 1 percentage point below. At the bottom of the odds is Nina Žižić from Montenegro.
The percentage chance of victory according to Eurovision World as of 16:20 CET is (change since March 2):
Sweden – Kaj – “Bara bada bastu” – 25.4% (+5.7%)
Austria – JJ – “Wasted Love” – 16.2% (+3 places, +11.4%)
Israel – Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise” – 9.9% (+5 places, +6.4%)
France – Louane – “Maman” – 8.9% (-2 places, -2.3%)
Netherlands – Claude – “C’est la vie” – 2.2% (+1 place, +6.9%)
Finland – Erika Vikman – “Ich komme” – 4.1% (-3 places, 3.8%)
Estonia – Tommy Cash – “Espresso macchiato” – 2.8% (-3 places, -2.5%)
Belgium – Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights” – 2.2% (+1 place, -0.7%)
Ukraine – Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray” – 2.2% (+4 places, -0.1%)
Albania – Shkodra Elektronika – “Zjerm” – 1.9% (+7 places, +0.3%)
Malta – Miriana Conte – “Serving” – 2.4% (no change, -0.9%)
Italy – Lucio Coris – “Volevo essero un duro” – 1.3% (+4 places, -0.6%)
United Kingdom – Remember Monday – “What the Hell Just Happened?” – 1.2% (+2 places, -0.8%)
Cyprus – Theo Evan – “Ssh” – 1.1% (no change, -0.9%)
Czechia – Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye” – 1.0% (-8 places, -2.6%)
San Marino – Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia” – 1.0% (+2 places, -0.6%)
Lithuania – Katarsis – “Tavo akys” – 0.9% (+2 places, -0.6%)
Greece – Klavdia – “Asteromata” – 0.9% (+4 places, -0.4%)
Australia – Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man” – 0.8% (-7 places, -1.6%)
Germany – Abor & Tynna – “Baller” – 0.8% (+1 place, -0.5%)
Georgia – Mariam Shangelia – “Freedom” – 0.8% (+2 places, -0.4%)
Ireland – Emmy – “Laika Party” – 0.8% (-2 places, -0.7%)
Switzerland – Zoë Më – “Voyage” – 0.8% (+2 places, -0.2%)
Portugal – Napa – “Deslocado” – 0.7% (-14 places, -2.1%)
Poland – Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja” – 0.7% (-1 place, -0.4%)
Norway – Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter” – 0.7% (+1 place, -0.2%)
Azerbaijan – Mamagama – “Run With U” – 0.5% (+1 place, -0.2%)
Slovenia – Klemen – “How Much Time Do We Have Left?” – 0.7% (+2 places, -0.3%)
Denmark – Sissal – “Hallucination” – 0.5% (-3 places, 0.5%)
Latvia – Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi” – 0.5% (+2 places, -0.1%)
Spain – Melody – “Esa diva” – 0.4% (+3 places, -0.2%)
Luxembourg – Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son” – 0.4% (+1 place, -0.2%)
Armenia – Parg – “Survivor” – 0.4% (-4 places, -0.4%)
Serbia – Princ – “Mila” – 0.4% (+2 places, -0.2%)
Croatia – Marko Bošnjak – “Poison Cake” – 0.4% (-5 places, -0.4%)
Iceland – VÆB – “Róa” – 0.4% (-1 place, -0.2%)
Montenegro – Nina Žižić – “Dobrodošli” – 0.1% (-0.1%)
Take a look at the odds at this time in 2024 and the eventual result of that entry (countries in bold placed better than the overall odds expected):
Croatia – Baby Lasagna – “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” – 20.3% – 2nd
Ukraine – Alyona Alyona and Jerry Heil – “Teresa & Maria” – 11.5% – 3rd
Italy – Angelina Mango – “La noia” – 11.0% – 7th
Switzerland – Nemo – “The Code” – 8% – 1st (+4 places)
Netherlands – Joost Klein – “Europapa” – 7.1% – Disqualified
Belgium – Mustii – “Before the Party’s Over” – 5.5% – 13th in Semi-Final Two
Greece – Marina Satti – “Zari” – 3.8% – 11th
Israel – Eden Golan – “Hurricane” – 3.4% – 5th (+3 places)
France – Slimane – “Mon amour” – 3.3%- 4th (+5 places)
Sweden – Marcus & Martinus – “Unforgettable” – 4.1% – 9th (+1 place)
United Kingdom – Olly Alexander – “Dizzy” – 2.3% – 18th
Austria – Kaleen – “We Will Rave” – 2.2% – 24th
Lithuania – Silvest Belt – “Luktelk” – 2.1% – 14th
Norway – Gåte – “Ulveham” – 1.9% – 25th
Finland – Windows95man – “No Rules!” – 1.7% – 19th
Ireland – Bambie Thug – “Doomsday Blue” – 1.3% – 6th (+10 places)
Georgia – Nutsa Buzaladze – “Firefighter” – 0.9% – 21st
Serbia – Teya Dora – “Ramonda” – 0.8% – 17th (+1 place)
Armenia – Ladaniva – “Jako” – 0.7% – 8th (+11 places)
Iceland – Hera Björk – “Scared of Heights” – 0.7% – 15th in Semi-Final One
Azerbaijan – Fahree feat. Ilkin Dovlatov – “Özünlə apar” – 0.6% – 11th in Semi-Final One
Estonia – 5miinust and Puuluup – “(Nendest) narkootikumidest ei tea me (küll) midagi” – 0.6% – 20th
Cyprus – Silia Kapsis – “Liar” – 0.6% – 15th (+8 places)
Slovenia – Raiven – “Veronika” – 0.5% – 23rd (+1 place)
Spain – Nebulossa – “Zorra” – 0.5% – 22nd (+3 places)
Australia – Electric Fields – “One Milkali (One Blood)” – 0.5% – 11th in Semi-Final One
Albania – Besa – “Zemrën n’dorë” – 0.5% – 15th in Semi-Final Two
Denmark – Saba – “Sand” – 0.5% – 12th in Semi-Final Two
Latvia – Dons – “Hollow” – 0.5% – 16th (+13 places)
Poland – Luna – “The Tower” – 0.4% – 12th in Semi-Final One
Germany – Isaak – “Always on the Run” – 0.4% – 12th (+19 places)
Portugal – Ioland – “Grito” – 0.4% – 10th (+22 places)
Malta – Sarah Bonnici – “Loop” – 0.4% – 16th in Semi-Final Two
Luxembourg – Tali – “Fighter” – 0.4% – 13th (+21 places)
Czechia – Aiko – “Pedestal” – 0.4% – 11th in Semi-Final Two
Moldova – Natalia Barbu – “In the Middle” – 0.4% – 13th in Semi-Final One
San Marino – Megara – “11:11” – 0.4% – 14th in Semi-Final Two
Image Source: Daniel Stridh | Source: Eurovision World
Tags: Headline
