Latvian public confidence in NATO less than ‘ironclad’, survey suggests / Article

The Norstat study (full results are attached to this story in PDF format, Latvian language only) collected the responses of 1,000 people across the country from February 26 to March 7.

The question asked was:
“To what extent do you believe that in the event of a military invasion of Latvia, NATO allies would send their military forces to participate in battles to defend Latvia?”

Only 10% of respondents firmly believe that NATO allies would send their troops to fight in the event of an invasion of Latvia. Another 33% tend to believe that would be the case, giving a total of 43% who think allies would put their troops on the line.

On the other hand, 16% of respondents are convinced allies would not fight for Latvia and a further 25% tend think allies would not fight, giving a total of 41% who doubt NATO’s real commitment.

It is also worth noting that the remaining 16% of respondents were unable or unwilling to give an answer either way.    

The results also show that households in which Latvian is the main language spoken exhibit a greater degree of confidence in NATO than those in which Russian is the main language. 57% of Latvian-language households had either full or partial confidence in NATO allies’ willingness to defend Latvia compared to just 22% among Russian-speaking households. 

Still, nearly a third (32%) of Latvian language households said they were completely or partially convinced allies would not fight and 12% were undecided or could not say.

In Russian language households, more than half of those asked (55%) said they were completely or partially convinced allies would not fight. Interestingly, the number of people who did not venture an opinion was also considerably higher at 23%.

A similar survey was conducted from October to December last year on behalf of the State Chancellery, which asked similar, but not identical, questions.

At that time, 36% of respondents “completely” or “rather” agreed with the statement “I feel safe because Latvia is protected by its membership in the NATO alliance”. 27% had the opposite opinion. 11% considered a Russian attack on one of the Baltic states inevitable in the coming years, 36% disagreed.

However, 60% of respondents admitted that they were afraid that they might suffer in hostilities because someone might attack Latvia, and 27% chose the answer “I am very afraid”.

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