Julian Naglesmann did not hesitate to replace the poor performers from the first half and the moves paid immediate dividends. Tim Kleindienst’s first touch was the equalizer. Jonathan Burkardt, David Raum and Nadiem Amiri all failed to impress and were correctly substituted for better players.
Kleindienst outplayed Burkardt in the build-up, defensive press, and everything else in between. Kleindienst should play at least 70 minutes in the second leg this weekend.
Jonathan Tah looked awkwardly stiff and uncomfortable throughout the match. He was slow to react and often made the lazy touch, pass, or decision. Tah has rarely missed games due to injury throughout his career but he is clearly dealing with something right now.
Oliver Baumann was incredible today. All six saves were legitimate scoring opportunities. Barring an injury or significant drop in form, Baumann should be Germany’s number one goalkeeper for the foreseeable future. Sorry, Alexander Nübel.
After a poor first half, Germany settled into the match and held the momentum for most of the second half. Naglesmann will be very pleased to take a lead into the second leg with the backing of a German crowd.
All four underdogs earned a draw or win in the first leg today. Sunday’s second legs should be a fantastic watch.
UEFA Nations League Scores
Croatia 2-0 France
Denmark 1-0 Portugal
Netherlands 2-2 Spain
FT: Germany wins, 2-1!
90’: Substitution. Robert Andrich replaces Pascal Groß.
83’: Substitutions. Lorenzo Lucca and Davide Frattesi replace Moise Kean and Nicolò Barella.
82’: Substitution. Karim Adeyemi replaces Leroy Sané.
76’: GOOOAAALLL! Germany takes the lead 2-1. Leon Goretzka flicks on Joshua Kimmich’s corner kick.
74’: Substitution. Daniel Maldini is booked for a foul.
71’: Substitution. Daniel Maldini replaces Giacomo Raspadori.
66’: Substitution. Jamie Leweling replaces Nadiem Amiri.
64’: Substitutions. Raoul Bellanova and Samuele Ricci replace Matteo Politano and Nicolò Rovella.
55’: Yellow card. Nadiem Amiri is booked for a foul.
52’: Yellow card. Nicolò Rovella is booked for a foul.
49’: GOOOAAALLL! Germany ties it up, 1-1. Joshua Kimmich finds Tim Kleindienst for a beautiful header to even the score.
46’: Substitutions. Nico Schlotterbeck and Tim Kleindienst replace David Raum and Jonathan Burkardt.
Halftime Observations
Italy snagged an early lead because David Raum is freakishly slow and misjudged the passing angle. This is not new information but left back remains a liability for Julian Naglesmann. One could argue that Jonathan Tah’s half-hearted clearance bounced luckily to Sandro Tonali but gli Azzurri created a fantastic opportunity and Tonali’s finish was perfect.
Jamal Musiala and Leroy Sané are doing a good job of winning 1v1s and creating space but the rest of the attack looks more disjointed than Bayern’s attack in their last two Bundesliga matches.
Nadiem Amiri and Jonathan Burkardt might get subbed off at halftime. They are both visibly overwhelmed by the pace, spacing, and organization of this match. Naglesmann has a variety of options on the bench who are itching to prove themselves.
This is not a one-sided complaint. The referee needs to let the game breathe. There have been way too many fouls called in situations that have minimal contact paired with an egregious flop.
UEFA Nations League Scores
Croatia 2-0 France
Denmark 0-0 Portugal
Netherlands 1-1 Spain
HT: Germany goes into the break down 1-0.
32’: Oliver Baumann denies Moise Kean.
30’: Oliver Baumann rejects a powerful shot from outside the box.
20’: Leon Goretzka’s one-time blast from just outside the box is swallowed up by Gianluigi Donnarumma.
9’: Goal, Italy. Germany down 1-0. David Raum gets beat, Jonathan Tah fails to clear the ball, and Sandro Tonali cleans up the mess.
1’: LET’S GOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Julian Naglesmann has wisely inserted all four Bayern Munich players that are available today: Jamal Musiala, Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, and Leroy Sané.
The backline is relatively standard. The real surprises are Naidem Amiri and Burkardt. Amiri plays for Mainz in the midfield but has not featured for Germany since a pair of friendlies in 2020. Burkardt is the leading goal scorer for Mainz, tied for third in the Bundesliga Golden Boot race. Tim Kleindienst was reportedly slated to start against Italy tonight but apparently Naglesmann went a different route.
Julian Naglesmann’s German national team squad cruised past Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Netherlands with four wins and two draws to claim first place in Group A3. After a four month hiatus, Germany will play Italy in a highly anticipated two-leg quarterfinal matchup.
Historically, Italy (15W-13D-9L) holds the advantage over Germany. However, the Italians have not beat the Germans in the last six attempts, dating back to 2012. The biggest clash between the two sides occurred in the 1982 World Cup final when Italy won 3-1 at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid, Spain.
Italy finished tied with France for first place in group A2, but the French won the goal differential tiebreaker.
In the competition’s short history, Germany has failed to reach the knockout stage in all three previous attempts.
Odds: Germany (+170), Draw (+220), Italy (+170)
Prediction: Germany draws 1-1. Both teams are missing their leading scorers, Florian Wirtz (Germany) and Mateo Retegui (Italy). Add in a four month hiatus since the last international matches and it’s a recipe for a frustrating affair. Expect both teams to score off set pieces, defend deep with numbers, and avoid counter-attacks from the opponent. The second leg will be infinitely more entertaining once one of the teams gains the upper hand.
While you’re waiting for the game, why not check out our preview podcast? Listen to it below or on Spotify.
Bavarian Podcast Works — Preview Show: Italy vs. Germany (UEFA Nations League)
Germany looking to come out hot in 2025, and keeping their current run of form heading into the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals. Stakes are particularly high, knowing that whoever wins this quarter-final will host the Nations League Finals in June.
A look at the recent form of each team and how they performed in the Nations League so far.
A look at the rosters and injuries for Italy and Germany.
Why Germany should be cautious.
A guess at Germany’s starting XI.
A prediction on the match.
Match Info
Location: San Siro, Milan, Italy
Date: Thursday, March 20th, 2025
Time: 8:45pm local time, 3:45pm EST
TV/streaming: fuboTV, Find Your Country
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