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Europe has sharply increased defense spending in response to Russian aggression and doubt about U.S. credibility. In 2024, European defense budgets rose by 11.7 percent in real terms. A decade ago, only three NATO members met the alliance’s 2 percent of GDP defense spending guideline. By the end of 2024, 23 of 32 members had reached the target, including Germany, which boosted its spending by 23 percent from 2023 to 2024. This shift underscores Europe’s commitment to strengthening its military and reducing reliance on external security guarantees.
Meanwhile, Japan and South Korea have emerged as major arms exporters. Japan’s defense sector is expanding rapidly following Japan’s decision to overturn its decades-old arms export ban in 2014 and further loosen restrictions in late 2023. South Korea’s arms exports hit $14 billion in 2023, securing its place among the world’s top 10 arms suppliers. It aims to break into the top four by 2027.
Geopolitical Futures (GPF) was founded in 2015 by George Friedman, international strategist and author of The Storm Before the Calm and The Next 100 Years. GPF is non-ideological, analyzes the world and forecasts the future using geopolitics: political, economic, military and geographic dimensions at the foundation of a nation.