Trump’s promise of a quick end to Ukraine war gets a reality check after talks end with no deal

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1. This article explores potential ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, with Trump reportedly playing a role in backchannel discussions alongside Putin and Saudi officials. It raises questions about how Trump’s involvement could influence the outcome and what it means for U.S. foreign policy. However, given his past stance on NATO and Ukraine, I don’t think Trump’s involvement is actually helpful in achieving a fair resolution.

2. Will Trump admin at any point appreciate that they’re being played and used by Russia, or will they continue handing away concessions with nothing in return in delusional pursuit of a “reverse Nixon/Kissinger”? I feel like the likelihood of “5D chess” decreases every week.

3. Ukraine negotiations, tariffs, budget negotiations…

   I hope this month has been one big reality check: this administration is incompetent and incapable of running a superpower

   Even if you agree with their ideas (and I am willing to admit a handful of their ideas are sensible!) the truth is that they cannot *execute* their ideas

   This became apparent at the end of the last administration with the botched China deal:

   https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2022/china-bought-none-extra-200-billion-us-exports-trumps-trade-deal

   It will become ever more apparent now. They do not have the bandwidth, experience, or bureaucracy to do policy. They *do not trust their own government bureaucracy*. They are literally at war with the staffers at the Federal government. So they do everything within a very small circle of trusted advisors. Many of those advisors are former TV personalities, hotel owners, and podcasters. The few that have policy experience are still very limited people (Waltz, Gabbard) and others are not fully trusted (Rubio).

   Their chief Russia negotiator is a real estate investor who doesn’t possess 0.1% of Putin/Lavrov’s geopolitical experience and depth.

   Their voters never understood the simple fact that the world is a complex place. They wanted to believe that a guy with a bunch of bankrupt casinos could negotiate with Vladimir Putin and solve global crises.

   Wrong- now and every day for the next 4 years.

4. It doesn’t matter to Trump. All he cares about is what his base thinks, forget about the rest of us

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