Thursday’s bounce followed a sharp decline that took prices below the 50-day moving average ($3.811), touching $3.732 before reversing higher. The rebound encountered resistance near $3.924—a key pivot level—early Friday.
If bulls can reclaim that level, a short-covering rally could extend toward $4.317. However, the downtrend suggests sellers will likely re-enter on rallies toward that resistance band.
A failure to hold the 50-day moving average would expose $3.732 once again, and a break below that level could accelerate losses toward the next support zone at $3.350.
EIA Storage Data Undermines Bullish Momentum
The latest EIA report confirmed a 37 Bcf injection into storage for the week ending March 21, exceeding the consensus estimate of 33 Bcf and contrasting sharply with the five-year average draw of 31 Bcf. Total working gas now stands at 1,744 Bcf, 6.5% below the five-year average and 24.2% below year-ago levels.
While supplies remain tighter than historical norms, the larger-than-expected build reinforces the market’s concerns about weaker heating demand and looser balances in the near term.
Mild Weather Outlook and Weak Demand Cloud the Bullish Case
Short-term weather forecasts show above-normal temperatures across the central and eastern U.S. from April 1–4, curbing late-season heating demand.