The White House led by President Donald J. Trump has pushed hard to force a ceasefire in the Russo-Ukraine War, and in March, US officials claimed a diplomatic break-through and a partial end to the shooting. That’s not really what’s happened.
1. What are the official positions?
– The US position and what they’ve done: On March 25, US negotiators in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia announced they had gotten Ukraine and Russia to agree to a ceasefire covering military operations in the Black Sea. There were later announcements that an agreement between the sides not to attack each other’s energy infrastructure had been reached as well. The US has acknowledged Russian conditions for the deal to go forward but neither sanctioned Russia nor given in to the Russian demands.
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– The Russia position: The Kremlin says that it won’t abide by the Black Sea ceasefire or the energy infrastructure “agreement” until the US makes concessions to Russia. The main concession demanded by Russia is for the US and Europe to lift SWIFT bank transfer sanctions on Russian businesses and ships moving goods via the Black Sea. But also, Kremlin officials doubled down on past demands that the world accept Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russia has denied it has attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the agreement and accused Ukraine of attacking Russian energy infrastructure.
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– The Ukrainian position: Kyiv says it is respecting both the Black Sea ceasefire and the “agreement” not to hit Russian energy infrastructure, and it’s accused Russia of attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
– The European position: Although locked out of the talks by the US (Ukraine wanted the EU involved) Brussels officials this week have stated that the only way economic sanctions against Russia might be lifted – including SWIFT- and bank transfer-associated sanctions placed on Russia by EU or its member states – would be for Russian forces to leave Ukraine completely.
2. What’s the “legal” reality of this ceasefire?
Effectively, the US negotiated a pair of verbal agreements, one with Russia and one with Ukraine.
Based on Ukrainian and Russian statement, the terms the US agreed to with Russia (ceasefire in exchange for Western concessions) differ from the terms the US agreed to with Ukraine (ceasefire with no concessions to Ukraine).
According to US announcements, the agreement to avoid strikes on infrastructure covers oil refineries, oil and gas pipelines and storage facilities, pumping stations, electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, power plants, substations, transformers and distributors, nuclear power plants, and hydroelectric dams.
There is no written treaty agreement, and no terms have been approved by any of the involved countries’ legislatures. There is no mechanism, at least that has been made public, of how a ceasefire violation might be determined and what might happen to the violator.
The US definition of off-limits targets in the power grid is so wide, that any attack anywhere hitting a site with electricity, could be interpreted as a violation of the agreement.
Taken together, this makes serious discussion of what the ceasefire agreement obliges the involved countries to do, and not do, effectively futile. Both Russia and Ukraine are free to make accusations and deny them.
The US position, as expressed by lead negotiator Steve Witkoff, is that once a limited ceasefire is in place, a wider ceasefire would follow, after which practical negotiations on peace terms might begin. Witkoff’s boss, Trump has repeatedly said both sides must stop fighting because that’s what he wants – and if necessary he and the US have the leverage to force both Ukraine and Russia to conclude a peace deal.
3. OK, so how is this “ceasefire” playing out on the battlefield?
The short answer is the biggest and bloodiest war in Europe since World War Two is still in progress and effectively nothing has changed.
Over the past 72 hours there have been no reports of attacks by either side against civilian ships, however, Ukraine’s defeat of Russia’s navy in late 2023 along with a NATO-sponsored corridor through Bulgarian, Romanian and Turkish territorial waters had effectively ended Russian strikes against cargo ships of any flag in the Black Sea basin, for more than a year. As before, the remains of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet have stayed far away from Ukrainian shore-based anti-ship missile batteries, and kept to the east end of the Black Sea.
However, both Ukraine and Russia have sent attack drones at inland targets that passed over the Black Sea. Ukraine has hit the Russia-occupied Crimea peninsula and Russia’s south-western Krasnodar and Rostov regions. Russian drones and missiles have overflown the Black Sea to hit the Ukrainian cities of Kherson and Odesa. Thus far, since the “ceasefire,” these attacks have taken place nightly.
Both sides, likewise, have accused each other of striking energy infrastructure. The best-documented Russian attack took place on Thursday, to partially shut down the power grid for the city Poltava, but other cities have been hit. The Kremlin has accused Ukraine of targeting power distribution sites in both Crimea and Rostov regions.
The ground war, meanwhile, has intensified, most likely because warming weather has dried ground making troop movement and tactical drone operations easier along the front line. The hottest sector, as in past months, has been the eastern Pokrovsk region, where relentless Russian attacks appear to be gaining small patches of ground at the price of high casualties. Ukraine’s main offensive effort appears to be along the Russo-Ukraine border in the Belgorod region, where a Ukrainian reinforced raid grabbed three Russian villages. Heavy fighting is in progress as the Russians have counter-attacked, according to Kyiv, unsuccessfully. The Kremlin has claimed massed air strikes and artillery are decimating the Ukrainian incursion.
4. What are the politicians saying? What comes next according to them?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Thursday, in comments published by his office:
“The US believes that the ceasefire in the sea and energy infrastructure is working. Here’s what I think: two days ago, there was a night when there were no strikes on the energy infrastructure. Today, it was damaged in Kherson by Russian artillery. That’s how it works. So, there should be a reaction of the United States. In actions.”
US President Donald J. Trump (to Newsmax):
“I think that Russia wants to see an end to it, but it could be they’re dragging their feet. I’ve done it over the years, you know; I don’t want to sign a contract, I want to sort of stay in the game, but maybe I don’t want to do it, quite … I’m not sure.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin (Thursday televised comments):
“There are strong grounds to expect a military victory of our army over the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Our forces are working towards that. And all the authorities of today’s Ukraine, from the president down, are illegitimate.”
5. So what do observers make of this “ceasefire”? How do they see the situation?
Simon Woodiwiss, CEO of the Objective Ukraine operations support and research group, to Kyiv Post:
“Basically what the US has achieved for Russia is…
1) Elimination of risk to Russian vessels in the Black Sea. Where the Ukrainians have been kicking their a*ses all over the place.
2) A (possible) removal of sanctions on their (Russian) exports of agricultural produce and chemicals.
3) A further enhancement of their (Russian) war funds by getting the Ukrainians to stop attacking their energy and oil and gas facilities.”
Agil Rustamzade, Baku-based military analyst, March 27 comment:“I have been writing about this for over a month: it is not about Trump. What we are seeing now is precisely the US strategy, and it will remain so. This is a shift of historical proportions. First: yes, the US and Russia are now in a situational alliance (quote) with the goal of forcing Ukraine to cease fire on Russia’s terms…Even if the US meets Ukraine halfway or provides assistance, it will be situational, at the tactical level. But strategically…both Trump and the US are with Putin…(Ukraine’s policy should be) only with reliance on its own forces and maximum rapprochement with Europe.”
Igor “Strelkov” Girkin, former Russian militia leader, Putin opponent, published letter from prison, March 27:“Ukraine continues to prepare for a long, drawn-out war, which it is waging, continues to prepare for the introduction of NATO troops, which is implied by the “third party,” and which is already preparing to enter Ukraine during the so-called “ceasefire.” And what about us? We got nothing…We are being “led by the nose” again. Again our president (or whoever he puts in his place) will (see NATO troops arrive in Ukraine and) say with complete amazement on his face: ‘We were deceived again!’ What can one do? People who do everything to be deceived will, of course, be deceived.”
Ukrainian military blogger Kyrylo Sazonov, March 26 comment:
“There remains one key problem. The three parties have fundamentally different goals. And different ways to achieve them. Trump needs a beautiful picture of any peace for any short period. To show voters a result. What comes next is a secondary issue for him. Ukraine needs a real peace. Not a truce. A peace with real long-term guarantees. And Russia needs a victory over Ukraine. Two are possible…It is difficult to find a compromise with the occupiers. We have stood our ground and continue to stand our ground. We are becoming stronger and more technologically advanced. We are inflicting very painful blows.”