Ukrainian troops have made marginal gains in Russia’s Belgorod region, it has been reported, as a map shows the state of play along the front line.
Geolocated footage on Friday showed small advances northwest of Belgorod city which deliver a much-needed boost to Kyiv’s morale in a week in which a Black Sea deal proposed pausing strikes on energy infrastructure.
Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst, told Newsweek that Ukraine had been pressuring Russian forces for over a week in Belgorod, but it was likely a fixing operation, not a landgrab with large goals.
Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry via email for comment.
A partially collapsed apartment building which was hit by a Ukrainian strike in Belgorod on May 12, 2024.
A partially collapsed apartment building which was hit by a Ukrainian strike in Belgorod on May 12, 2024.
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Why It Matters
Belgorod Oblast is in western Russia and borders Ukraine’s Sumy, Kharkiv, and Luhansk Oblasts. Russia has launched numerous attacks against Ukraine from Belgorod, while Moscow has also accused Kyiv of attacks against the region whose significance in the war appears to be growing.
What To Know
Neither Ukraine nor Russia have officially confirmed the incursion but Russian military bloggers and independent analysts said Ukrainian forces had advanced more than two miles into Belgorod.
Russian military bloggers said there was heavy fighting in the settlements of Popovka and Demidovka in which both sides deployed drones and artillery.
A map by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Friday showed these purported Ukrainian gains in eastern Popovka.
Meanwhile, the pro-Moscow Rybar Telegram channel said Russian forces had moved reinforcements from the Kursk region to Belgorod in response.
This ISW map shows the state of play in Belgorod, Russia, where Ukraine is said to have made gains.
This ISW map shows the state of play in Belgorod, Russia, where Ukraine is said to have made gains.
Institute for the Study of War
Kastehelmi, a military analyst from Finland-based Black Bird Group, told Newsweek that the Ukrainians have been putting pressure in the Belgorod border area for over a week, advancing to Demidovka and possibly one or two other border villages, but there was been no indication of further gains.
He said it was very unlikely that the Ukrainians could gather a strong enough force to actually break through and threaten important Russian logistical routes or cities and although the fighting is happening in Belgorod Oblast, the city of Belgorod is 60 miles away.
Kastehelmi said Ukrainian forces couldtake some additional villages in the border area or launch new incursions in other directions, but there was very little to be achieved in the Demidovka direction at operational or strategic level, and that may not even be the Ukrainian goal
What people are saying
The Institute for the Study of War on March 28: “Geolocated footage published on March 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in eastern Popovka (northwest of Belgorod City).”
Emil Kastehelmi, Black Bird Group: “It is difficult to see what the operation could achieve, apart from maybe briefly shifting Russia’s attention from the Sumy and Kursk Oblasts.
“There’s no proper element of surprise, and the Russian presence in the area is strong enough for at least defensive operations to restrict Ukrainian attacks. It’s likely a fixing operation, not a landgrab with large goals.”
What happens next
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukrainian forces had taken “certain steps” in Russia outside of Kursk without providing more details.
However, the Kyiv Independent reported that Ukraine’s operation seemed to be aimed at diverting Russian troops as Moscow tries to push Kyiv’s troops out of Kursk, where it staged an incursion in August 2024.
Meanwhile, Russia is likely preparing to a new multipronged offensive soon to strengthen its position in possible peace talks with Ukraine, according to The Associated Press, citing Ukrainian analysts and diplomatic sources.
Update 3/29/25, 1:30 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Emil Kastehelmi.