Created on March 28, 2025
Cyclical Trade
One of the first things that comes to mind in this market is that from a cyclical standpoint, we typically do fairly well this time of year. After all, you start to see more economic demand for crude oil as temperatures warm up, as well as more travel. With that being said, I think the United States is about to see a bit of a boom when it comes to economic activity, as the fears of the recession are overblown as per usual. While there could be a short-term recession, the reality is that most of the forward-looking indicators are very much in the growth category.
If there is going to be economic growth in America, then the crude oil market will do quite well. Furthermore, if inflation returns, and some of the forward-looking indicators suggest that it will, crude oil is a place where you typically will see inflation. Ultimately, the one thing that I keep in mind more than anything else when it comes to looking at this market is the fact that we have recently bounced from a crucial range of support from the $67 level down to the $65 level, which goes back 3 years and its importance. Things like this don’t happen by accident, and I suspect that there are a lot of buyers in that general vicinity to keep the market somewhat afloat. In fact, OPEC has been known to do just that several times over the years.
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