India’s petroleum product exports grew by 3.7% in volume terms, reaching 59.0 million tonne (MT) during April–February, compared to 56.9 MT in the same period last fiscal, according to data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell. The increase was primarily driven by higher shipments of motor spirit, petcoke, and fuel oil.However, despite the rise in export volumes, the value of these exports declined by nearly 7% to $40.4 billion in the first eleven months of the current fiscal, down from $43.4 billion in the same period last year.
This decline was attributed to weaker global prices compared to the previous fiscal.In February alone, petroleum product exports rose by 6% year-on-year, reaching 5.6 MT, up from 5.3 MT in February 2024. However, in value terms, exports fell by 5% to $3.9 billion, reflecting the impact of lower prices.
On the import front, refined oil product imports rose by 5.6% to 46.8 MT during April–February, up from 44.3 MT in the same period last year. The import bill for these products also increased by 3.8% to $21.9 billion, compared to $21.1 billion in the previous fiscal.India’s domestic petroleum product consumption in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal rose to 218.3 MT, a 2.6% increase from 212.7 MT in the same period last year. The growth was fueled by higher demand for diesel, motor spirit, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and aviation turbine fuel (ATF).
While the demand for ATF increased by 9.3%, that of LPG and motor spirit grew by 5.5% and 7.4% respectively. Diesel consumption recorded a growth of 2.1% during April-February from last year.India projects domestic petroleum product demand to reach a record 252.9 MT in FY26.
However, analysts warn of potential challenges in the global oil market starting in 2025, citing concerns over a supply glut, geopolitical uncertainties, and weak demand from major consumers, all of which could weigh on India’s export prospects.
The government, in its economic survey, highlighted that global energy markets remain vulnerable to disruptions due to escalating conflicts in the West Asia and the Russia-Ukraine war. It warned that further escalation could lead to market repricing of sovereign risks in affected regions.
The survey also noted that rising geopolitical tensions have contributed to higher freight rates and disruptions in energy trade. It emphasised that 15% of global maritime trade passing through the Suez Canal has been impacted.
Recent disruptions in global shipping have also increased goods prices and strained supply chains. While container freight rates normalised in 2023, the government observed a significant surge in 2024 due to stronger demand, shipping route disruptions in the Red Sea, and delays at the Panama Canal. These factors, the survey said, have kept inflationary pressures elevated.