but…but….Redditors told me sanctions don’t work ,rubble is recovering
**of course it is recovering ,they got to use the gold reserves and yuan reserves**
the central bank will not let the rubble free fall without using some of its reserves
Russia has not gone unprepared into this war
its foreign reserves were enough for **20 months**
it’s got Western Europe hostage due to oil and gas dependency
problem is
* they didn’t expect half of foreign reserves to be frozen
* they didn’t expect gold reserves to be sanctioned
* they didn’t expect the massive boycott and disinvestment movement(who could predict the individual decisions of thousands of individual companies ?)
* they didn’t expect the war in Ukraine to turn into an attrition war
they can sustain their system and their currency for **9 more months**
problem is:can they win in Ukraine in 9 months?
and even if they do win,even if they bring 75% of their army to Ukraine and use all of their forces…then what?
do they expect sanctions to be lifted in 9 more months?
do they expect new LNG ports and pipelines to China to be completed in that time?
if they made the calculation for being sanctions-immune,they assumed they can win before running out of foreign reserves…
problem is that China is going through its own economic slowdown,its real estate sector is so bad could trigger a global recession
so China alone can’t help them until 2-3 years from now
2 comments
but…but….Redditors told me sanctions don’t work ,rubble is recovering
**of course it is recovering ,they got to use the gold reserves and yuan reserves**
the central bank will not let the rubble free fall without using some of its reserves
Russia has not gone unprepared into this war
its foreign reserves were enough for **20 months**
it’s got Western Europe hostage due to oil and gas dependency
problem is
* they didn’t expect half of foreign reserves to be frozen
* they didn’t expect gold reserves to be sanctioned
* they didn’t expect the massive boycott and disinvestment movement(who could predict the individual decisions of thousands of individual companies ?)
* they didn’t expect the war in Ukraine to turn into an attrition war
they can sustain their system and their currency for **9 more months**
problem is:can they win in Ukraine in 9 months?
and even if they do win,even if they bring 75% of their army to Ukraine and use all of their forces…then what?
do they expect sanctions to be lifted in 9 more months?
do they expect new LNG ports and pipelines to China to be completed in that time?
if they made the calculation for being sanctions-immune,they assumed they can win before running out of foreign reserves…
problem is that China is going through its own economic slowdown,its real estate sector is so bad could trigger a global recession
so China alone can’t help them until 2-3 years from now