A weekend of rapid-fire developments raised the stakes for President Trump’s coming promise of vast new tariffs. But it provided even less clarity on what he will actually implement as his self-imposed deadline looms in just two days.
Perhaps the only thing clear at this point is that a dizzying array of options remain on the table for what Trump calls “Liberation Day.”
The vastness of possibilities appears to be widening after Trump recently teased that he “may give a lot of countries breaks” and said Sunday night he could be “generous” even as he quickly added that “all countries” could be impacted.
A campaign trail idea of blanket 20% across-the-board tariffs also appears to have reemerged as at least an option.
The developments also made clear that a single person — Trump himself — will be the one determining the final decision with even his close advisers publicly and privately able to only offer guesses about what he would do.
“I can’t give you any forward-looking guidance on what’s going to happen this week,” National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett offered in a Fox News appearance on Sunday. “The president has got a heck of a lot of analysis before him, and he’s going to make the right choice I’m sure.”
A White House official declined to add more — even on questions like how much remains in flux internally and whether any of Trump’s decisions to be unveiled this week have been made.
President Donald Trump speaks reporters as he returns to Washington on Air Force One on March 30. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images) · BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI via Getty Images
Meanwhile, the economic stakes are growing with a new round of market turbulence in evidence Monday morning especially in the Nasdaq (^IXIC) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) as some businesses rush orders to get ahead of tariffs.
And Goldman Sachs (GS) revised its economic forecasts lower in response to the likelihood of larger tariffs, predicting slower growth and more inflation.
“The only near-certainty is that the effective US tariff rate is heading to its highest level since the 1940s,” Capitol Economics added Monday morning in an analysis. “That means rising inflation in the US and growing economic risks for its key trading partners.”
Even an overall hope that the coming week — however unsettling — may provide a measure of clarity for businesses going forward appears less and less likely.
Economist Jens Nordvig, the founder of Exante Data, summed up those feelings by posting online that whatever Trump decides “is unlikely to be any final, complete and internally consistent solution.”
This week’s news, he predicted, “will be adjusted and negotiated in coming weeks and months. Meaning that uncertainty will linger.”
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