Despite natural gas prices surging well above breakeven costs for the Haynesville Shale, the region’s producers are holding back on expanding drilling, surprising analysts who say the hesitation was tightening up supply projections as LNG exports increase.

Natural Gas Intelligence's (NGI) spot Henry Hub daily natural gas price graph showing historical market volatility versus Haynesville natural gas production.

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“The Haynesville will have an outsized role in this growing production this year, but there are questions out there on how well it can respond,” East Daley Analytics senior director Jack Weixel said in a recent presentation.

The Haynesville in East Texas and northwestern Louisiana, with close proximity to key Gulf Coast LNG terminals and growing industrial demand, is recognized as one of the most important sources of gas supply needed to meet an incoming wave of new LNG export demand.