https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyq3lvgd4yo
Ireland is expected to be one of the most affected countries when President Trump announces a new round of tariffs later this week.
EU goods are expected to face a tariff of about 20% when entering the United States.
Among EU countries, Ireland is the most reliant on the US as an export market.
In 2024, Irish goods exports to the US were worth €73bn (£61bn), almost a third of the country's total exports.
Tariffs are effectively taxes applied to goods imported from other countries.
Governments impose tariffs in the hope of protecting local manufacturers from international competition.
The Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Micheál Martin said on Monday that increased US tariffs were "a very grave and serious threat".
Analysis co-authored by Ireland's Department of Finance and the ESRI think tank suggested the tariffs could cost Ireland more than €18bn (£15bn) in lost trade.
It also warned that a prolonged trade war between the EU and US would pose a risk to Ireland's public finances.
Business impact of US tariffs
The level of concern in Ireland as the tariff's announcement draws closer can be gauged by the level of public interest in the issue.
Many Irish towns and cities have enjoyed the benefits of a US business presence for decades, while the workers who are employed in these big businesses travel to the plants from all over Ireland, meaning that the impact of any tariffs could reach into countless communities all over the country.
Martin is standing in a room above a warehouse, he's wearing a white shirt and dark suit jacket with a combilift pin on his lapel. The pin is gold with combilift printed in green. He has short light/grey hair and is wearing thin black rimmed glasses. He is smiling at the camera.
Image caption,
Martin McVicar, of Combilift, visited Chicago in March to brief his US customers
Monaghan-based manufacturer Combilift makes about a quarter of its sales in the US market where it also employs 50 people.
The company's co-founder and managing director Martin McVicar visited Chicago in March to brief his US customers.
He told them he will freeze the dollar price of all Combilift products this year to give them some certainty about import costs.
"We've given our customers certainty on what their costs will be in US dollars for products delivered to the port in the US.
"At least they can try to plan their business around that at this stage."
A forklift sits in a lane of a warehouse, with wood and other objects on shelves. The forklift is black and yellow, being operated by a man in hi-vis.
Image caption,
Combilift's forklifts can operate in tight spaces, small enough to help companies store more in warehouses
Mr McVicar remains bullish about the US market as he sees their products as helping customers run their businesses more efficiently.
Combilift makes forklifts which can operate in very tight spaces which allow companies to store more in their warehouses.
"We're enabling customers to expand without having to relocate and we're adamant that should outweigh the impact of a tariff," he said.
Pharmaceutical exports
Ireland's biggest export sector is pharmaceuticals: the country is a major manufacturing hub for US companies like Pfizer and Eli Lilly.
In 2024 overall exports of medical and pharmaceutical products rose by €22.4bn (£18.8bn) or 29% to just under €100bn (£83.7bn).
These products accounted for 45% of all Irish goods exports.
Trump has repeatedly expressed his unhappiness at the scale of US pharma manufacturing in Ireland.
Last month he said: "All of a sudden Ireland has our pharmaceutical companies, this beautiful island of five million people has got the entire US pharmaceutical industry in its grasp."
Trump has also talked about imposing specific tariffs on pharma, as he has done for imports of cars.
However that is not expected to form part of this immediate round of tariffs.
Analysis: John Campbell, BBC News NI economics and business editor
Ireland has been one of the winners of globalisation – that long process which has made it easier for people, goods and money to flow around the world.
Reforms to global tax rules over the last decade have been particularly beneficial.
That has led to major international pharmaceutical and technology companies paying a large chunk of their taxes in Ireland.
So much money has flowed in that the government has been able to set up a national wealth fund.
Donald Trump's deglobalising instincts are a clear threat to that prosperity.
Dan O'Brien wears a burgundy jumper and white shirt. He wears glasses. He is bald. He is staring into the camera. There is a picture on the wall behind him.
Image caption,
Dan O'Brien said parallels could be drawn with the 2008 economic crash
Dan O'Brien, chief economist of the Institute of International and European Affairs, believes the Irish economy could be exposed because of the success of the pharmaceutical sector there.
"The republic is the single biggest exporter of pharmaceuticals to the United States. With a population of just over five million that makes it a bigger exporter than even the likes of traditional powerhouses like Germany and Switzerland," he said.
Mr O'Brien added the potential impact of the tariffs on Ireland could have parallels with the country's economic crash in 2008.
"Then there was a financial crisis, it was immediate, it was like the wind blew the roof off the house," he said.
"In this case it's more like a more gradual erosion of the foundations, which obviously is very important for any structure."
If the people of the country were not quite sure what the implication of the changes might be, the Irish government has left them in no doubt in recent weeks.
In a sobering analysis, the Minister for Finance, Pascal Donohoe, who is renowned for his cautious style of commentary around economic matters, outlined the possible outcome for Ireland in the worst-case scenario.
The minister, who is also president of the Eurogroup of Finance Ministers, said: "It is very possible that between 50,000 and 80,000 jobs that would have been created or kept within the economy won't be."
This sobering analysis has been accompanied by transatlantic and EU diplomatic discussions involving the Taoiseach Micheál Martin, and the Tánaiste (deputy PM) and Minister for Foreign Affairs, Simon Harris.
The scale of Ireland's dependency on foreign direction investment involving the US has been explained by Ireland's Industrial Development Authority (IDA).
An IDA spokesperson told BBC News NI: "IDA Ireland partners with more than 1,800 FDI client companies, 766 of which are US companies that directly employ over 210,000 people and indirectly support an additional 166,000 jobs.
"Conversely, Ireland is the sixth largest source of foreign direct investment into the US, with investment by Irish companies in 2023 worth $351bn (£272bn).
"More than 200,000 people are employed by 770 Irish companies across all 50 States."
by BelfastTelegraph
17 comments
Announcement is coming up soon, Irelands trade deficit accounts for 40% of the entire EUs, while the UK which is expected to be pushed into recession despite importing more US products than exporting.
Wonder how fucked the local economy is going to be with this new deal.
America will be the hardest hit by Trump tariffs. Brits should stop slobbering over others’ potential misfortunes and cop on to themselves.
People are so fucking dense.
The tarifffs imposed are for goods going into America.
Pharma like Eli Lilly will just pass this on to the consumer, which in America is highly likely to be insurance companies.
How will Ireland be harmed by that?
Will EL create a manufacturing centre overnight? No.
By the time they set up a new manufacturing centre in America there will be a new set of rules or tariffs or President.
Companies just need to ride this out until
Trump leaves and all the tariffs disappear.
The America public are going to get shafted badly.
How the EU reacts will dictate how its hurts us.
>Dan O’Brien wears a burgundy jumper and white shirt. He wears glasses. He is bald.
😅
Trump needs to just piss off what an absolutely melter.
There’s kids in primary school with better cognitive ability on understanding economics than this golden shower loving twat bag
https://preview.redd.it/ovabi1yzdhse1.jpeg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8d894e33c9b2f6382d1d01cfc15cc9421073a945
He has quite clearly said he wants US companies back making stuff in the US. It’s not like it has came out of the blue. He said it to the Republic of Irelands president when he visited for st Patrick’s day. So yes, as the heading suggests I would expect Ireland to be hit hard as American companies have propped their economy for years now. Though who knows how this will play out in the long term.
>”Conversely, Ireland is the sixth largest source of foreign direct investment into the US, with investment by Irish companies in 2023 worth $351bn (£272bn).
>”More than 200,000 people are employed by 770 Irish companies across all 50 States.”
I assume most of these are American companies legally based in Ireland but with most operations still in the US.
It’s probably going to trigger a global recession so we’ll all feel it in one way or another.
This is going to push hardship onto us all, which will lead to angry people needing a scapegoat and someone (or a group of people) to blame, which will lead to a further rise of the far right across Europe and America (due to retaliatory tariffs). And it’s all by design.
10% export on goods from UK could actually be beneficial for NI exports – it makes the UK the cheapest exporter of goods in the western world for USA.
With that said, the islands economies are inter-linked so the 20% EU export may cause some collateral damage.
The good thing for now is that services aren’t hit, which makes up the bulk of Ireland and NI’s exports to US.
I do expect the Irish pharma industry to be affected by this sadly.
That’s the risk of putting all your eggs in one basket, eventually the basket turns out to be a backstabber who only cares about itself, good luck peeps
I’m not a tariff expert but all I know is that I paid 39% total import charges on a personal import from the US to the EU. Why do EU countries complain about tariffs being applied to their exports whenever their own citizens have to pay tariffs for imports? Americans used to be able to import $800 tariff free and now they will pay 20% on all imports so I can see how they will complain but EU and UK leaders can’t complain about tariffs whenever their own citizens have to pay tariffs because of them, if they hate tariffs so much they would allow a higher personal import amount than the current rate of about £130 tariff free.
Can someone explain to me why it’s ok for tariffs towards the US but unacceptable that they would want to do it back to those countries?
I don’t mean that in a snarky way, I genuinely don’t understand why it’s ok for other countries to do it. Is it something to do with trade surplus?
All so the economy crashes and those with all the money can buy up all the suddenly cheap assets. Ain’t that a doozy. Economy trickled down so much that down is now up.
Same people who always spout communism is impossible because human nature is to be greedy will defend trickle down economics and stick their fingers in their ears when we have a number of people you could count on one hand with personal worths higher than the gdp of entire nations, and they’re the ones doing this in order to get richer.
2020’s just keep getting better and better and we’re only halfway through it
Such an opportunity for the government.
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