On April 2, US President Donald Trump stunned the world by levying tariffs on most of the globe. A universal tariff of 10% was imposed on all imported goods and each nation faced what Trump called “reciprocal tariffs,” meant to punish those nations that imported too much to the US.
One notable exemption from the tariff was Russia. (Even Ukraine was hit with tariffs.)
Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.
However, tariffs and the sum of trade barriers are not easily quantifiable. It seems that Trump’s team came up with a rather simplistic formula for determining the tariffs:
He would take the trade deficit that the US runs with that nation and divide it by the exports that country sent into the US. Then, because Trump wanted to be “kind,” and perhaps to threaten even high tariffs during any future negotiation process, the final tariff number was cut in half.
After a fair amount of derision on social media about Trump’s bookkeeping, the Office of the US Trade Representative clarified its methodology:
“Reciprocal tariffs are calculated as the tariff rate necessary to balance bilateral trade deficits between the US and each of our trading partners. This calculation assumes that persistent trade deficits are due to a combination of tariff and non-tariff factors that prevent trade from balancing. Tariffs work through direct reductions of imports.”
It’s a rather complex word salad for a simple formula that did not seem to convince global markets in freefall.
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So how much would Russia pay?
US total goods trade with Russia, according to the same Office of the US Trade Representative were an estimated $3.5 billion in 2024. US goods exports to Russia in 2024 were $526.1 million, down 12.3% from 2023. US goods imports from Russia totaled $3.0 billion in 2024, down 34.2% from 2023. The US goods trade deficit with Russia was $2.5 billion in 2024.
So, if we take the trade deficit of $2.5 billion and divide it by Russia’s exports to the US, $3 billion, then divide that figure by half, the tariff on Russia should be 42%.
What does Russia still export to the US?
According to the Office of the US Trade Representative, Russia mainly exported fertilizers, nuclear fuel and some metals to the US.
OEC World trade tracker offered figures for Russia’s exports to the US in 2023: Total exports were $4.87 billion, with the top product being radioactive chemicals ($1.21 billion) and nitrogenous fertilizers ($1.04 billion).
Before the full-scale invasion, based on 2021 figures, Russia would have had to pay 39%, as the trade deficit was slightly more favorable to the US.
Why doesn’t Russia pay?
US outlet new Axios quoted White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt as saying this was because existing US sanctions on Russia “preclude any meaningful trade.” She also noted that Cuba, Belarus and North Korea were also not included.
However, the BBC pointed out that nations with even less trade with the US – such as Syria, which exported $11 million of products last year according to UN data quoted by Trading Economics – were on the list.