Russian territorial gains in Ukraine have been slowing since late 2024, new assessments show, as U.S.-pushed efforts toward a ceasefire deal stall and Ukrainian officials warn of a fresh Russian offensive.
Why It Matters
Moscow controls roughly a fifth of Ukrainian territory. After the initial months of Russia’s full-scale invasion and Ukraine’s fall 2022 counteroffensive, the frontline in the east of Ukraine became relatively static, Russia’s gains hard-won with very high casualty counts.
The Kremlin rejected a U.S. proposal—to which Ukraine agreed last month—for a 30-day ceasefire, and made its consent to a partial truce in the Black Sea hinge on sanctions relief. Trump officials negotiating with both sides have failed to make further headway, to the U.S.’s President’s frustration.
What To Know
The U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), said on Sunday that Russia’s rate of advance in Ukraine had been “steadily declining” since November 2024.
This is partly down to Ukraine’s success counterattacking in the east of the country, the think tank said.
The British Defense Ministry said on Saturday that Russian gains had dropped off in the first three months of 2025, assessing that Moscow had seized 143 square kilometers in March 2025. This is equivalent to 5 square kilometers per day, according to the U.K. government.
Russia had seized 700 square kilometers in November 2024, dipping to under 400 square kilometers for December, London said. In January, Russia took control of just over 326 square kilometers of territory, followed by 195 square kilometers in February, the U.K. added.
The ISW think tank said it had seen a similar trend through geolocated footage, although the exact figures of territory seized differed.
Most of the gains in March 2025 were concentrated in the Donetsk region, the U.K. said. The ISW said Ukraine had regained positions around the key cities of Pokrovsk and Toretsk in the past few weeks, helping to slow Russian advances.
Russia said that between March 29 to April 4, its forces had captured four Donetsk settlements and two villages in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. In a later statement on Monday, Moscow’s defense ministry said its troops had seized the Donetsk village of Katerynivka.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said late last month that Russian forces held the “strategic initiative” across the entirety of the front line.
Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed over the weekend its troops had captured the Ukrainian village of Basovka, in Ukraine’s Sumy region. Andrii Demchenko, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service, told the Ukrainska Pravda outlet that Russia was engaged in a “disinformation campaign regarding the capture of settlements in Sumy Oblast or breakthroughs of the border.”
Sumy sits across the border from Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukraine launched a surprise incursion last August that provided Kyiv with a bargaining chip in ceasefire negotiations. A fresh Russian effort, supported by North Korean troops, in recent weeks has peeled back much of Ukraine’s grip across the border.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told French newspaper Le Figaro in late March that Putin was playing for time to launch a spring offensive focused on Ukraine’s Sumy and Kharkiv regions.
Ukraine’s state broadcaster, Suspilne, cited the deputy head of Zelensky’s office on Thursday as saying Russia was preparing to increase its attacks along several parts of the frontline.
What People Are Saying
Russian President Vladimir Putin said last month during an appearance in the northwestern city of Murmansk that Russian troops were “moving forward and liberating one territory after another, one settlement after another, every day.”
What Happens Next
It remains to be seen how quickly the Trump administration will be able to secure an elusive peace deal, and whether Russia will soon launch a concerted push along various parts of the frontline.