A Turkish flag. (Photo courtesy of Jeremy Mura on Unsplash)The political landscape of the Middle East has irrecoverably changed. A region once known for terrorism, bombings and wars is finding itself increasingly under the influence of an old hegemon.
Even though tensions soar between Israel and Iran’s proxies, Turkey is reclaiming its position as leader of the Islamic World.
From the 13th century to WWI, Turkey, known then as the Great Ottoman Empire, brought relative stability to its lands in Europe, Africa and the Middle East under its control.
Yet, over several centuries, the rise of Modern Europe steadily eroded Ottoman power. By the turn of the 20th century, the successive crises of the Balkan Wars, WWI and its bloody aftermath, left the empire shattered and forgotten by much of the world for the next century.
To many Turks, the fractured states and endless turmoil to its south are the direct legacy of Western interference. Even after a century, the humiliation of imperial defeat still lingers as a deep historical grievance.
Amid this grievance, the Turks elected the bold Recep Tayyip Erdogan to the presidency in 2003. Running on the motto “Make Turkey Great Again,” President Erdogan tapped into the deep-seated nationalist sentiment and Ottoman nostalgia.
After 22 years, President Erdogan has done much to resurrect the notion of Turkish greatness through a series of actions military, economic and political in nature that have dramatically bolstered Turkey’s geopolitical status.
At the heart of President Erdogan’s foreign policy is Turkey’s strategic geographic location.
Its proximity to Europe, Asia and Africa allow it to alter events in the Balkans, Northeast Africa and the entire Middle East to their advantage, guaranteeing its status as a strategic heavyweight in all regions.
In his 2007 State of the Union address, the president publicly admitted it, saying that “[W]e have turned Turkey’s geographic position into an effective foreign policy instrument,” but this isn’t new.
For centuries, the Ottoman Empire’s enviable geography meant it dominated global trade routes, including the critical Silk Road. Many consider modern, post-WWI Turkey a middle power; no pushover, but also not capable of global superpower status.
I will not dispute that, but its strategic significance is not lost on anyone.
The last time it leveraged its position to achieve its foreign policy goals, it forced European nations to pivot toward a maritime trade system that indirectly launched the Age of Discovery, colonialism and the Transatlantic Slave Trade.
Do not be mistaken. This part of the world is where history happens, and Turkey’s right in the middle of it.
However, eighty years of American naval superiority diminished the impact of geography. With Washington guaranteeing the free flow of global trade, small or even land-locked countries could thrive.
Recent actions by the Trump Administration point to a deliberate U.S. withdrawal from the post-WWII liberal world order.
Such a move will mean the return of geography as kingmaker in international affairs, where physical access, natural resources, borders and strategic position will once again be the deciding factors of global power.
Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan, author of “The End of the World is Just the Beginning: Mapping the End of Globalization,” argues that Turkey is sure to gain.
“In any world where global trade is not a thing, for whatever reason, Istanbul is arguably the richest and most important city economically and strategically on the planet,” Zeihan said.
In the Middle East particularly, it is stretching its hand, and its timing is impeccable. While Turkey was present in the region well before October 7, 2023, it would seem leaders in Turkey’s capital, Ankara, have used Israel’s ongoing war against Iranian proxies as an opportunity to carve its own sphere of influence.
In Syria, after 14 years of civil war, Turkish support for the Islamist militant group Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham helped to decisively eliminate the Al-Assad regime in December of last year.
Since then, despite statements from Syrian Interim President Ahmad Al-Sharaa that “we will not let Syria be used as a launchpad for attacks against Israel or any other state,” he is likely to agree to host Turkish air bases in the country.
In Libya, Turkish support for the Government of National Accord in the Second Libyan Civil War helped secure critical access to energy resources and exclusive maritime zoning rights in the Eastern Mediterranean.
In August of last year, Turkey secured a 99-year lease in the northeastern port city of Khoms to establish a military base there, enhancing its control over territorial waters and the security of its merchant vessels.
In Somalia, Turkey’s February 2024 maritime security agreement enabled the Somalian Government to focus its capacity on defending against Al-Shabaab by granting Turkey the ability to take over Somalia’s naval defense, expanding Turkish military influence along the critical Bab El-Mandeb trade route.
Beyond direct military action, Ankara has expanded its defense cooperation through partnerships and military-basing agreements. Turkish troops and military advisors now operate in northern Iraq, northern Syria, North Cyprus and Somalia.
Turkey has secured defense cooperation deals with Jordan, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, Qatar, Libya and Chad, creating a network of client states and strategic allies.
Complementing its military interventions, Turkey has skillfully wielded economic diplomacy to expand its regional influence, with its construction firms, energy companies and defense contractors penetrating markets throughout the region.
In Iraq, Turkey has leveraged trade and infrastructure projects like the planned Turkey-Iraq Development Road to gain influence, making the Kurdish Regional Government economically dependent on Turkish cooperation.
In Qatar, Turkey’s military base both provides defense assistance and solidifies Ankara’s influence over Doha, a key financial backer of regional Islamist movements that serve Turkish interests.
Likewise, in Somalia, Turkey has become a major economic partner, investing in infrastructure, providing military training and using soft power to expand its influence in the Horn of Africa.
Erdoğan’s Neo-Ottoman rhetoric has made these efforts more than just pragmatic power plays. His populist, nationalist message resonates deeply with Turks who see their country as the natural hegemon of the region.
Through this narrative, Erdoğan presents Turkey as the rightful protector of Muslims from Gaza to Mogadishu, enhancing his popularity domestically while building a loyal base of regional allies.
Today, Turkey’s ascent as a regional superpower is all but guaranteed. The U.S.’s gradual withdrawal from the Middle East, combined with Russia’s preoccupation in Ukraine and China’s focus on economic expansion, has created a power vacuum that Ankara is eager to fill.
However, this expansion comes with risks. Turkey’s growing presence exposes it to potential overextension. Its increasing assertiveness in the Eastern Mediterranean, particularly regarding disputed maritime claims with Greece and Cyprus, risks conflict with fellow NATO members.
Domestically, despite surpassing Saudi Arabia as the country with the largest GDP in the Middle East, Turkey faces mounting economic challenges, including inflation and currency devaluation, which could undermine its long-term ambitions.
Nonetheless, the long-term implications of Turkey’s resurgence are impossible to ignore. As Erdoğan continues to promote a neo-Ottoman vision, leveraging military strength, economic partnerships and nationalist fervor, Turkey is poised to remain a key player in the Middle East for years and decades to come.
The region, long fractured by external powers, may once again see Turkey emerge as the dominant force, either leading this part of the world into a new era or triggering a transformation that will change it forever.
Copy edited by Anijah Franklin