President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the United States and Iran were beginning direct talks on Tehran’s nuclear program, a surprise announcement after Iranian officials had appeared to rebuff US calls for such negotiations.
But in a sign of the difficult path ahead to any deal between the two geopolitical foes, Trump issued a stark warning that if the talks are unsuccessful, “Iran is going to be in great danger.”
Iran had no immediate official response to Trump’s remarks. It had pushed back against Trump’s demands in recent weeks that it directly negotiate over its nuclear program or be bombed, but it had recently left the door open to indirect discussions.

“We’re having direct talks with Iran, and they’ve started. It’ll go on Saturday. We have a very big meeting, and we’ll see what can happen,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office during talks with visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Trump said Saturday’s talks with Iran would be at a very high level but declined to elaborate. He also declined to say where the talks would take place but held out the possibility that a deal could be reached.
“Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon and if the talks aren’t successful I actually think it will be a very bad day for Iran,” Trump said.

The US and Iran held indirect talks during former president Joe Biden’s term but they made little if any progress. The last known direct negotiations between the two governments were under then-president Barack Obama, who spearheaded the 2015 international nuclear deal that Trump later abandoned.

Nuclear deal or military action

Warnings by Trump of military action against Iran had jangled already tense nerves across the Middle East after open warfare in Gaza and Lebanon, military strikes on Yemen, a change of leadership in Syria and Israeli-Iranian exchanges of fire.
Trump has said he would prefer a deal over Iran’s nuclear program to a military confrontation and he said on 7 March he had written to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to suggest talks.

Iranian officials said at the time that Tehran would not be bullied into negotiations.

Iran’s nuclear agenda

Western powers accuse Iran of having a clandestine agenda to develop nuclear weapons capability by enriching uranium to a high level of fissile purity, above what they say is justifiable for a civilian atomic energy program.

Tehran says its nuclear program is wholly for civilian energy purposes.

The shift comes at a precarious time for Tehran’s regional “Axis of Resistance” which it has established at great cost over decades to oppose Israel and US influence. The axis has been severely weakened since Hamas’ attack on Israel on 7 October, 2023, tipped the Middle East into conflict.
Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been hammered by Israel since the Gaza war began while the Houthi movement in Yemen has been targeted by US airstrikes since last month. Israel severely damaged Iran’s air defenses last year.

The fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, another key Iranian ally, has further weakened the Islamic Republic’s influence.