The global economy has run on international trade for half a century. So, Trump’s decision to upend the status quo is disruptive for global industries like tech.
“Apple and Tesla and other leading firms are selling to people all across the world,” said economics professor Neil Mahoney, who is also director of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. “We’re going to really feel that in not just the stock price of these firms, but their decisions around investment and expansion, and ultimately, their decisions to pull back.”
Russell Hancock, head of Joint Venture Silicon Valley, which studies economic and social trends in the region, says he can’t see any silver lining for tech companies, whether or not they’re involved in manufacturing or consumer retail. Meta, Google and Amazon, for instance, enjoy enormous ad revenues that could suffer from a foreign retreat in spending.
Brand new Tesla cars sit in a parking lot at a Tesla showroom on June 27, 2022, in Corte Madera, California. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
“Personally, I think [Trump’s new tariff regime] is crazy,” Hancock said. “What I see is instability, retaliation [from other countries], and the upsetting of international systems that have been in place for a very long time.”
He also predicts more layoffs in the Bay Area if Trump doesn’t change course soon. But Hancock isn’t just talking about tariffs.
The San Francisco Bay Area has historically enjoyed a proximity to top academic institutions like Stanford University, University of California, Berkeley and San José State University, providing a ready talent pool and a steady stream of start-ups. However, those universities are facing uncertainties and enacting job freezes as the Trump administration tries to limit the National Institutes of Health research funding they rely on, as well as research into emerging technologies like quantum computing.
The Trump administration is also taking on the H1B visa popular in Silicon Valley by shutting down the Office of the Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman, which helps applicants who are struggling to get their cases processed. Tech companies are telling immigrant employees on visas not to leave the U.S., for fear they might not be let back in.