Putin’s intentions in Ukraine revealed by Russian offensives in key areas, leading analysts say
Among the key themes of the war in Ukraine over recent months has been Russia’s ongoing effort to seize Pokrovsk.
Control of the city, which the Russian media call “the gateway to Donetsk”, would allow Moscow to severely disrupt Ukrainian supply lines along the eastern front.
Its capture would also boost Russia’s campaign to capture the city of Chasiv Yar, which sits on higher ground offering potential control of a wider area.
However, the huge resources being deployed by Moscow in its attempts to take control of Pokrovsk offer an indication of Vladimir Putin’s intentions in Ukraine, according to analysts at leading US think tank the Institute for the Study of War.
It says Russian forces are currently pursuing three distinct tactical objectives in the Pokrovsk direction, but that Ukrainian drone operations and localised counterattacks are continuing to complicate their advances in the area.
“Russian forces have spent the last 13 months and lost over five divisions’ worth of tanks and thousands of troops attacking towards Pokrovsk and trying to seize the town,” the group said.
They said the Russian offensive operations “highlight Russian President Vladimir Putin’s determination to seize all of Ukraine through military means at whatever cost if he cannot do so through negotiations”.
“Future Russian attacks on and into Pokrovsk… would only generate greater manpower and materiel losses if the Russian military is even capable of conducting such operations after having suffered significant armoured vehicle and personnel losses over the last three years of fighting,” the analysts added.
ISW said Russian commanders were likely willing to undertake these long-term operations “because they are operating under the assumption or with direct knowledge that Putin does not intend to end the war in Ukraine in the near future”.
“Putin has previously articulated a theory of victory that assumes that the Russian military will be able to continue gradual, creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely and has repeatedly indicated that he has no interest in a resolution of the war on any terms but those he dictates,” they continued.
“The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s (ODNI) 2025 Annual Threat Assessment assessed in March 2025 that Putin remains committed to pursuing Ukrainian surrender through both diplomatic and military means.
“ISW continues to assess that Putin has no interest in ending the war and intends to continue fighting until he accomplishes his objectives in Ukraine, which are the toppling of the current Ukrainian government and the categorical destruction of the Ukrainian military.”