Given the way the world has been over the past few years it feels almost guaranteed at this point.
I fucking hate Reform but have no love for Welsh Labour either. They’ll only have their own complacent hubris to blame when they’re ousted.
It would be good to see that internal poll, as the other survey which came out recently suggested that Labour was losing vote share to Plaid Cymru with a very small amount going to Reform, and the Conservatives having that same issue but with Reform.
That would suggest that the only way to a Reform majority is by engaging new voters, which isn’t an impossibility but Senedd turnout is pretty steadily in the mid 40% range. The Welsh average turnout in the GE was around 47%, and I believe every Senedd vote has had a smaller turnout than the previous GE election?
Wales has an older, poorer demographic with a high % of unemployed & disabled…and who the fuck has Westminster Labour been targeting since they came into power? It’s almost a tedious inevitability that Reform gets in at this point. People will need to feel the incompetence, grift and stupidity for themselves and feel it gouge money out of their pockets, before they recognise populism/fascism isn’t any kind of answer.
Reform are dangerous private extremists. Shame on this nation for falling for their lies and hate.
Great news.
Reform are an English nationalist party who couldn’t give two shits about our country. The total lack of interest and respect they have for us should be clear when you see they aren’t naming a leader for the Welsh section of the party until after the Senedd election.
Can anyone ELI5 the difference between Senedd election voting systems and the usual fptp system that general elections use?
I’m asking because in a general election I wouldn’t be too concerned about seeing Reform this high – judging by their relative lack of results in council elections and by-elections since the general election last year Vs how competitive they are in opinion polling, it seems to me that their popularity is fairly uniform across the country.
In contrast the other parties have fluctuations that may leave their national average about the same as Reform, but their actual constituency level results showing either narrow wins or distant losses – hence why they win seats by the hundred/dozen and Reform… don’t.
Are Senedd elections more like proportional representation?
No they won’t. They may win a few seats and give Wales a shock but they won’t overtake Labour.
Deform UK are the kid that comes along and stabs the football everyone was playing with
I have… thoughts about this. I could say a lot of things about reform or the fact Welsh labour has caused this mess, while not completely responsible since UK labour and other parties are to blame too, are mostly responsible for this shitshow. But instead, I’ll talk about this: Reform voters, at least to me, have often seemed quite anti devolution and I often hear them say ‘Abolish the senedd’ (or some mindless crap like that and bring up random things like ‘The senedd is expensive’ (So? Westminster is expensive too, should we burn Westminster down and become an anarchist commune??)), but I’ll be very interested to see if reform wins wether they’ll suddenly become at least pro-senedd or just treat the senedd like a stepping stone.
It’s weird for an English nationalist movement to gain power in a country where just over half the people put Wales-only in national identity. I know 20% are English born, that large English migration happened in the 19th century, but I didn’t expect Reform to get more votes than Labour.
I would vote Plaid over Reform.
Reform are smaller than the green party. Stop making them into news and they’ll die out. Stop giving this guy a stage. Put him on the naughty step and ignore him until he behaves. Stop making him news!
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Given the way the world has been over the past few years it feels almost guaranteed at this point.
I fucking hate Reform but have no love for Welsh Labour either. They’ll only have their own complacent hubris to blame when they’re ousted.
It would be good to see that internal poll, as the other survey which came out recently suggested that Labour was losing vote share to Plaid Cymru with a very small amount going to Reform, and the Conservatives having that same issue but with Reform.
That would suggest that the only way to a Reform majority is by engaging new voters, which isn’t an impossibility but Senedd turnout is pretty steadily in the mid 40% range. The Welsh average turnout in the GE was around 47%, and I believe every Senedd vote has had a smaller turnout than the previous GE election?
Wales has an older, poorer demographic with a high % of unemployed & disabled…and who the fuck has Westminster Labour been targeting since they came into power? It’s almost a tedious inevitability that Reform gets in at this point. People will need to feel the incompetence, grift and stupidity for themselves and feel it gouge money out of their pockets, before they recognise populism/fascism isn’t any kind of answer.
Reform are dangerous private extremists. Shame on this nation for falling for their lies and hate.
Great news.
Reform are an English nationalist party who couldn’t give two shits about our country. The total lack of interest and respect they have for us should be clear when you see they aren’t naming a leader for the Welsh section of the party until after the Senedd election.
Can anyone ELI5 the difference between Senedd election voting systems and the usual fptp system that general elections use?
I’m asking because in a general election I wouldn’t be too concerned about seeing Reform this high – judging by their relative lack of results in council elections and by-elections since the general election last year Vs how competitive they are in opinion polling, it seems to me that their popularity is fairly uniform across the country.
In contrast the other parties have fluctuations that may leave their national average about the same as Reform, but their actual constituency level results showing either narrow wins or distant losses – hence why they win seats by the hundred/dozen and Reform… don’t.
Are Senedd elections more like proportional representation?
No they won’t. They may win a few seats and give Wales a shock but they won’t overtake Labour.
Deform UK are the kid that comes along and stabs the football everyone was playing with
I have… thoughts about this. I could say a lot of things about reform or the fact Welsh labour has caused this mess, while not completely responsible since UK labour and other parties are to blame too, are mostly responsible for this shitshow. But instead, I’ll talk about this: Reform voters, at least to me, have often seemed quite anti devolution and I often hear them say ‘Abolish the senedd’ (or some mindless crap like that and bring up random things like ‘The senedd is expensive’ (So? Westminster is expensive too, should we burn Westminster down and become an anarchist commune??)), but I’ll be very interested to see if reform wins wether they’ll suddenly become at least pro-senedd or just treat the senedd like a stepping stone.
It’s weird for an English nationalist movement to gain power in a country where just over half the people put Wales-only in national identity. I know 20% are English born, that large English migration happened in the 19th century, but I didn’t expect Reform to get more votes than Labour.
I would vote Plaid over Reform.
Reform are smaller than the green party. Stop making them into news and they’ll die out. Stop giving this guy a stage. Put him on the naughty step and ignore him until he behaves. Stop making him news!
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