BERLIN – Germany’s next government has a coalition pact, now the two parties just have to firm up the key names for top ministerial posts.

The Christian Democrats and Social Democrats laid out how they’ll divvy up the 17 cabinet-level posts between them – but have been silent on which politicians will take which jobs.

Just one name is certain: Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old conservative leader, will become Germany’s next chancellor, assuming the coalition comes together as planned.

Merz is likely to hold even more power over German foreign policy than his predecessors, in part by concentrating command in the chancellery under a newly created national security council.

While the final deal indicates Merz fell short in his bid to seize full control of EU policy matters, his party’s sway over the economic affairs and foreign ministries – which play key roles in coordinating European policy – will give Merz substantially more influence than outgoing SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz ever had.

It’s the first time all three of those critical jobs have all been held by the same party in decades.

The SPD has managed to secure seven ministries – a remarkable feat, given that the party scored just 16.4% in the February election, the worst national showing in more than a century for a party that was once a dominant force in German politics.

At least at the ministry level, the SPD influence appears strongest in economic matters, likely complicating Merz’s attempt to deliver on campaign promises of a staunchly pro-business government that could end two straight years of recession in Germany.

Merz’s party landed the economic affairs ministry, but the SPD will take over the powerful finance ministry and maintain control of the labour and social affairs ministries.

Here’s a rundown on who might get some of the top jobs in Germany’s next government:

Finance ministry

SPD co-chair Lars Klingbeil, who’s consolidated power since the election despite bearing some responsibility for the party’s historically poor showing, has been widely tipped for a top job in the next coalition.

That will most likely be finance minister, an important portfolio whose powers over spending bring influence over a broad array of policy matters. Scholz’s ex-finance minister Christian Lindner put some of that power on display amid bitter coalition infighting.

Chancellery

Close Merz ally Thorsten Frei, an immigration hardliner who currently leads the party’s faction in parliament, is widely expected to lead Merz’s chancellery, a cabinet-level post roughly equivalent to chief of staff.

Foreign office

Just who might be tapped as foreign minister remains something of a mystery. Names being floated include Johann Wadephul, who’s frequently advised Merz on foreign policy matters, or longtime MEP David McAllister, a half-Scottish former premier of the state of Lower Saxony.

There’s been chatter around Berlin that Armin Laschet, who made a failed bid for chancellor in 2021, badly wants the job – although it’s unclear if he’s even under consideration.

Economic affairs and energy ministry

Carsten Linnemann, a close Merz ally who is currently general secretary of the Christian Democrats, is widely expected to take over the economy and energy portfolios. Linnemann, a former Deutsche Bank economist, was widely reported to also covet control of labour policy in order to push through major labour market and unemployment benefit reforms – but that portfolio will remain under the control of the SPD.

Defence ministry

Defence minister was long seen as a dead-end job in German politics, with little chance for success and big risks for embarrassment (even if it didn’t torpedo Ursula von der Leyen’s career). That’s seemingly changed under current SPD Defence Minister Boris Pistorius, whose work to rebuild the country’s dilapidated and demoralised armed forces has made him the most popular politician in Germany.

Pistorius is considered a virtual lock to hold onto the job, and will now have huge sums of money to spend on rearmament after a post-election deal blew up Germany’s strict debt rules and paved the way for a massive increase in military funding. He’ll have a spotlight on his performance, given major security concerns over Russian threats and American disinterest in European security.

Labour ministry

Current SPD Labour Minister Hubertus Heil may hope to hold onto his job, but he’s reportedly facing competition from Bärbel Bas, the well-liked outgoing president of the Bundestag, the lower house of Germany’s parliament.

Bas is seen as a rising talent in the party, and is reportedly also in the mix for a parliamentary leadership post. But her cabinet candidacy could be boosted by the fact that Heil is a middle-aged man from Lower Saxony – just like Klingbeil and Pistorius, two other Social Democrats higher up the pecking order. Too many such picks would likely raise eyebrows in the party.

Interior ministry

Alexander Dobrindt, who leads the Bavarian CSU’s parliamentary faction in Berlin, is widely seen as the favourite for the interior minister post. He’s close with Merz and supported a hard-line turn on immigration – but not everyone was impressed by his handling of his last cabinet job as transport minister from 2013 to 2017 under Angela Merkel.

Economic development ministry

For the SPD, there’s also the question of where Saskia Esken might land. Officially, Esken is national co-chair alongside Klingbeil, and was at the table for the final high-level negotiations on the coalition deal. But Esken, a leading figure on  the party’s left-wing, has clearly been sidelined by the rise of the pragmatic Klingbeil.

Some German news outlets have reported Eskin as a candidate to head the development ministry – although that job is currently being held by a well-liked SPD minister, Svenja Schulze, who may hope to stick in the job.

Research, technology and space

The Bavarians have generally gathered a reputation for provincialism in German politics, and despite their domination of regional politics, relatively few Bavarian conservatives have managed to make a lasting impression on the national stage.

There have been occasional allegations of using ministry posts to redirect funding back home, which might well be at least part of the angle with a newly assembled ministry combining research with space flight, which has been set aside for the CSU.

The frontrunner for that job is rumoured to be Dorothee Bär, a deputy leader of the CSU’s parliamentary delegation in Berlin. She could oversee putting German astronauts on the moon – or at least funnel tech and research money to Bavaria, which once announced its own space programme under Söder.

Agricultural ministry

The current Bavarian state agriculture minister, Michaela Kaniber, seems likely to take over the national ministry after Bavarian Premier (and CSU boss) Markus Söder secured the post for his regional party.

The CDU will also run the ministries of education and family affairs, health, transport and a new digitalisation minstry. The SPD, meanwhile, will also run the ministry for the environment and climate, as well as the ministry for housing and construction.

Nick Alipour contributed reporting from Berlin.

(om, jp)