Can Trump diplomacy stop Iran building the bomb?

16 comments

1. ***From The Sunday Times:***

   A wary re-engagement between Washington and Tehran began on Saturday with 2½ hours of talks in Muscat, most of which were spent with the Omani foreign minister passing messages between the US and Iranian delegations sitting in separate rooms.

   This was never likely to produce a big breakthrough. However, the two sides did agree to reconvene next week, and the Iranian foreign minister claimed that the talks were conducted in a “in a constructive atmosphere and based on mutual respect”. Oman described the atmosphere as “conducive to bridging viewpoints”. That was as positive an outcome as could be expected.

   If the two sides are to make progress they will need to pick up speed. President Trump is reported to have allowed two months for a diplomatic solution to be found to the Iranian nuclear programme. To encourage the Iranians to be more forthcoming, he has warned that if the talks fail there should be no doubt that he is prepared to authorise military action. If he does, he says, “it’ll be a very bad day for Iran”. Such threats are one reason why Iran has approached these talks with caution.

   The previous agreement negotiated ten years ago by President Obama, backed by an international coalition, meant that Iran would halt its uranium enrichment in return for sanctions relief.

   In his first term Trump abandoned this deal on the grounds that it was not tough enough and the relief allowed Iran to pursue its hostile activities in the region. He brought in a campaign of “maximum pressure”, essentially harsher economic sanctions than before. Predictably this failed.

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4. A war is the perfect distraction he needs now.

5. >Can Trump diplomacy stop Iran building the bomb?

   No.

   If Iranian leadership think they need nukes for their regime survival, there is nothing US can do – diplomatically or militarily – to stop it. Could slow down a bit. But at the end of the day, US is powerless to stop it.

6. Trump “diplomacy” from his first term is the reason they are trying to build one…

   Obama negotiated a deal to keep them from building a bomb and Trump cancelled it unilaterally.

7. This administration’s brand of “diplomacy” is causing every non-nuclear country to really start considering having some nukes.

   [“You dont have any cards”](https://imgur.com/a/Y31QKbN)

8. Given what we saw in Ukraine I doubt Iran will be willing to give up nuclear weapons once it develops them.

   Nuclear weapons are a safety for totalitarian regimes.

   I don’t think Trump diplomacy can achieve much.

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10. If anything, Trumps diplomacy is probably going to lead to more countries with nuclear weapons.

11. Budapest Memorandum.

    After that got thrown in the shitter, every sovereign nation has an interest in procuring weapons of mass destruction.

12. Trump will probably declare war on Iran and then back down after 48hrs.

13. Well, as a matter of fact it can. Iran really-really need out of sanctions and do not have much to loose. They know Israel really would want to bomb them before they will get a bomb. And question for Iranian government is like this – what is more danger – attach from someone outside or some type of internal revolution if economy will be still collapsed. And second danger looks really bigger.

14. Honestly, I think Trump should restore some balance in the region by either letting Iran pursue a nuclear deterrent just like Israel did under the table, or push for Israel to give up its nukes under international supervision. The current status quo, where one country has undeclared nukes and the other is sanctioned and threatened for even trying, is unsustainable and unjust.

    If nuclear weapons are truly a threat to peace, then the rules should apply equally. Otherwise, it’s just selective enforcement that erodes global trust and fuels further proliferation.

15. I don’t think there is any one person or event that could make Iran want to build nukes more than Trump will. He is reasons 1 through 1 million on why Iran will think it needs nukes.

16. Any deal should not only stop them from having nuclear weapons, but should also require them to stop arming and paying their terror proxies.

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