KAJ remain the favourites to take victory in Basel, while Adonxs from Czechia has entered the top ten favourites.
In the three weeks since we last looked at the betting market to take victory at Eurovision 2025, Sweden has continued to grow their percentage likelihood of taking victory. “Bara bada bastu” has seen its chance of victory grow by 4 percentage points, and is now nearly 7 percentage points ahead of second favourite Austria.
Further down the top ten, Belgium has passed Estonia to become seventh favourite to take victory in Switzerland. While Adonxs from Czechia has now entered the top ten with “Kiss Kiss Goodbye”, knocking Ukraine down to eleventh favourite.
The biggest fallers down the odds have been Israel which has dropped 2.2 percentage points but remains fourth favourite, while France has lost 1.2 percentage points. In terms of simple places lost in the rankings, Georgia has dropped four to 30th favourite, while Lithuania and Ireland have slipped back three.
The percentage chance of victory according to Eurovision World as of 20:40 CET is (change since March 23):
Sweden – Kaj – “Bara bada bastu” – 27.1% (+4%)
Austria – JJ – “Wasted Love” – 20.3% (-0.7%)
France – Louane – “Maman” – 10.4% (-1.2%)
Israel – Yuval Raphael – “New Day Will Rise” – 6.0% (-2.2%)
Netherlands – Claude – “C’est la vie” – 5.0% (-1.0%)
Finland – Erika Vikman – “Ich komme” – 3.8% (+0.2%)
Belgium – Red Sebastian – “Strobe Lights” – 3.0% (+1 place, +0.7%)
Estonia – Tommy Cash – “Espresso macchiato” – 2.8% (-1 place, +0.3%)
Albania – Shkodra Elektronika – “Zjerm” – 2.1% (+0.2%)
Czechia – Adonxs – “Kiss Kiss Goodbye” – 1.7% (+4 places, +0.8%)
Ukraine – Ziferblat – “Bird of Pray” – 1.6% (-1 place, -0.3%)
Malta – Miriana Conte – “Serving” – 1.2% (-1 place)
United Kingdom – Remember Monday – “What the Hell Just Happened?” – 1.1% (+0.1%)
Italy – Lucio Coris – “Volevo essero un duro” – 1.1% (-2 places)
San Marino – Gabry Ponte – “Tutta l’Italia” – 1.0% (+0.1%)
Cyprus – Theo Evan – “Ssh” – 0.9% (+2 places, +0.1%)
Australia – Go-Jo – “Milkshake Man” – 0.8% (+2 places)
Greece – Klavdia – “Asteromata” – 0.8% (+2 places)
Lithuania – Katarsis – “Tavo akys” – 0.8% (-3 places, -0.1%)
Ireland – Emmy – “Laika Party” – 0.8% (-3 places)
Switzerland – Zoë Më – “Voyage” – 0.7% (+1 place)
Germany – Abor & Tynna – “Baller” – 0.7% (-1 place)
Norway – Kyle Alessandro – “Lighter” – 0.6% (-0.1%)
Poland – Justyna Steczkowska – “Gaja” – 0.6% (-0.1%)
Denmark – Sissal – “Hallucination” – 0.5% (+4 places)
Azerbaijan – Mamagama – “Run With U” – 0.5% (+2 places)
Slovenia – Klemen – “How Much Time Do We Have Left?” – 0.5% (-2 places)
Spain – Melody – “Esa diva” – 0.5% (+2 places)
Portugal – Napa – “Deslocado” – 0.4% (-2 places, -0.1%)
Georgia – Mariam Shengelia – “Freedom” – 0.4% (-4 places, -0.1%)
Luxembourg – Laura Thorn – “La poupée monte le son” – 0.4% (+1 place)
Serbia – Princ – “Mila” – 0.4% (+2 places)
Latvia – Tautumeitas – “Bur man laimi” – 0.4% (no change)
Armenia – Parg – “Survivor” – 0.4% (-2 places)
Croatia – Marko Bošnjak – “Poison Cake” – 0.4% (-0.1%)
Iceland – VÆB – “Róa” – 0.4% (-0.1%)
Montenegro – Nina Žižić – “Dobrodošli” – 0.3%
Image Source: ADONXS | Source: Eurovision World
Tags: Headline
