For weeks now, Russia’s main axis of attack in southern Donbas has been faltering. Ukraine is conducting local counterattacks near Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Chasiv Yar and is unexpectedly pushing back against Russia.
That progress has been aided by technical evolution; Ukraine has extended the range of its drones by several kilometers using fiber optic cables that cannot be disrupted by Russian electronic warfare. This allows Ukraine to disable Russian artillery pieces and logistical facilities.
Russian logistics around Pokrovsk and large parts of southern Donbas are now dysfunctional and chaotic. It no longer has the upper hand in terms of artillery there and has too few armored vehicles for its infantry.
Ukraine has also succeeded in significantly reducing the accuracy of the feared glide bombs that have done so much damage over the last year. Its electronic warfare systems have been used to interfere with the Russian GLONASS satellite navigation used by the bombs, which are as heavy as 3.4 tons and are launched beyond the reach of Ukrainian anti-aircraft systems,
Ballistic missiles, which use inertial navigations systems, are much harder to stop. Russia has employed these missiles against smaller towns lacking advanced anti-missile systems and mass nightly drone attacks using increasingly dense formations of the Iranian-designed craft to saturate air defenses.
The effects were clear on April 13, Palm Sunday, as people in the eastern town of Sumy were attending to church services.
on Ukrainian cities and on missile terror with ballistic missiles against Ukrainian civilians. In Kryvyi Rih and Sumy, Russia used Iskander-M missiles with cluster warheads.
Russia is preparing a multi-month wave of attacks from Russian territory into the Sumy area in northeastern Ukraine. The city of Sumy, close to the border, is thus threatened with similar pressure as Kharkiv from May 2024.
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The Sumy region is not one of the Ukrainian territories annexed by Russia on paper. With these attacks, Russia is continuing to claim the whole of Ukraine and is trying to drive out the Ukrainian population through air raid terror.
An attempt to conquer Sumy will fail, as it did in Kharkiv. However, Russia will try to relieve itself in the Donbass through the attacks, to present Russian strength in the information space, and to stretch Ukrainian forces and logistics.
Ukraine needs a lot of cheap drone defense, air defense systems, and more fighter jets to support air defense.
Ukraine needs more investment in the Ukrainian defense industry, joint ventures, and the spending of Western military aid directly on Ukrainian companies.
Ukraine needs support for the construction of fortifications, laying mines, and building decoys in the Sumy region and on other sections of the front.
Ukraine needs support and financing for the initiative to purchase weapons, ammunition, and equipment in the United States with European money, provided the corresponding capabilities are only available there. This applies to spare parts and ammunition for HIMARS and ATACMS as well as air defense systems.
More than a month after Ukraine announced its readiness to accept an unconditional ceasefire, Russia is still not prepared to accept a ceasefire but has instead launched a new wave of attacks.
The criminal Russian attacks with ballistic missiles with cluster munitions in busy city centers, with many dead civilians, must have consequences. Germany and the EU-Europeans should block ships of the Russian shadow fleet and cancel Schengen visas for Russian diplomatic passports.
The new German government should prepare a delivery of Taurus to Ukraine together with the Swedish Gripen fighter aircraft.
A European initiative should bring financial, economic, humanitarian aid and high-level visitors to the cities of Sumy, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Dnipro, and Odesa to counter the Russian campaign of expulsion and unacceptable claims.
Exploiting the Trump administration’s good-willed approach, Putin wants to demonstrate Ukraine’s partners their weakness and helplessness. Europe and the U.S. should respond with strength and harshness that surprises Putin.
Europe’s Edge is CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America. All opinions expressed on Europe’s Edge are those of the author alone and may not represent those of the institutions they represent or the Center for European Policy Analysis. CEPA maintains a strict intellectual independence policy across all its projects and publications.
Europe’s Edge
CEPA’s online journal covering critical topics on the foreign policy docket across Europe and North America.