The Russian government recently accused the Norwegian government of militarizing the Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic Region. According to Russian media, the Russians are concerned that the archipelago might be used in a potential conflict. They claim that that the territory of Svalbard is increasingly being drawn into Norway’s military and political planning together with NATO.
The Russian accusation is allegedly a response to statements made by some Norwegian politicians that have called for an increased military presence on and around Svalbard. Norway reacted swiftly to these accusations and responded that it had not undertaken steps to militarize the island. The incident does show that Russia views a militarized Svalbard as a military threat, one that upon analysis could result in a weakening of Russian dominance of the Artic Region and would further stretch the Northern Fleet.
When looked from an artic projection, it is clear that Svalbard has an important geographic position in the Artic Region. The island is roughly located halfway between the northern part of Greenland and the Murmansk region. As such, the island holds a commanding position between the access to the Artic Region from the Atlantic Ocean and the North Pole.
The Svalbard archipelago is governed under the 1920 Svalbard Treaty that designates the archipelago for peaceful development and restricts the military use. Under the treaty, naval bases and military fortifications are prohibited, though it is not designated a demilitarized zone. Naval vessels patrol the waters around the islands and Norwegian armed forces are known to assist local authorities in time of need and crisis.
Militarization of Svalbard possible though highly unlikely
During a recent interview with the Norwegian Navy, it became clear that Norway is highly unlikely to militarize the Svalbard archipelago in the near future. When asked about the performance of NATO forces in the Baltic and Norwegian waters and what could be done more, the response was that NATO forces are doing a good job and in the current situation are perceived as adequate by the Norwegian government. With NATO providing sufficient protection to Norway, it is unlikely that the country would see a need to militarize Svalbard in order to further increase its security.
This does not take away that the Svalbard archipelago holds a valuable military potential when it comes to dealing with Russia in the Arctic Region. Given the infrastructure present at Svalbard, any potential militarization will most likely be of an aerial nature with aircraft being stationed at the Svalbard airport near Longyearbyen. Additionally, Norway could also opt to place radar systems, missile systems and air defense systems on the island should it decide to militarize the archipelago.
Also possible is turning Svalbard into a position that would be able to replenish NATO warships operating in the Artic Region. Full on militarization is however highly unlikely as it would require large construction projects on the island which is difficult to achieve given its remote location.
Making use of the current infrastructure, placing aircraft on Svalbard would be the easiest option available for Norway. These aircraft could include fighter aircraft to gain air superiority over the Barents Sea and maritime patrol aircraft to monitor the region. Operating from Svalbard, maritime patrol aircraft could cover the Barents Sea and the Novaya Zemlya archipelago which is home to test sites linked to Russian strategic weapons programs such as the nuclear cruise missile 9M730 Burevestnik, designated SSC-X-9 Skyfall by NATO.
It’s not the first time Russia has been accusing Norway of militarizing the Svalbard Archipelago. However, in recent years Russia has shown to be more aggressive in this region with unannounced visits by Russian politicians to hosting a military styled Victory Day parade by the local Russian population living on the archipelago. Relations between Russia and NATO have also been tense as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is speculated that Russia might attempt to take military action against Svalbard as a means to test NATO commitment in the Arctic Region.
A view of Longyearbyen, Svalbard, with the valley it sits in. Picture by Himmel S.
Russian capabilities and responses
A militarized Svalbard would mean that the Northern Fleet needs to dedicate more assets to the northern approaches of the Barents Sea. When practicing wartime scenarios the Northern Fleet typically sets up a bastion area between Murmansk and Bear Island, located south of Svalbard. A militarized Svalbard would require the Russians to expand their bastion further north in order to take a threat posed by Svalbard into account thereby spreading their naval vessels further then intended. As stated previously, the hypothetical threat posed by Svalbard will most likely be in the form of fighter and reconnaissance aircraft. This would result in the Russians focusing more on their air defense capabilities taken in account that Norway, in such a hypothetical scenario, would be able to strike from two directions. The first being from already available airfields at the North Cape, and the second being from Svalbard.
Russian warships are less capable in dealing with aircraft when they use standoff weapons such as long range missiles. Only two Russian warships in the Northern Fleet are well suited to address this threat though both are not in active service at this moment. The aircraft carrier RFS Admiral Kuznetsov is still undergoing maintenance and is unlikely to return to service after eight years of maintenance characterized by numerous accidents.
The other vessel is the Kirov class cruiser RFS Admiral Nakhimov which is being modernized and expected to enter service in the near future. The RFS Admiral Nakhimov carriers several air defense missiles and close-in weapon systems and should be able to project an air defense zone over a Russian naval task force. Russia could also call upon the aircraft of the Naval Aviation regiments assigned to the fleet in helping to address air threats in the Barents Sea. All these elements would be defensive in nature.
More offensive responses by the Northern Fleet would be targeting any hypothetical military installations at Svalbard to deny there use in a conflict scenario. The vessels of the Northern Fleet, especially the Admiral Gorshkov class frigates, are capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. However as seen in the Ukraine War, these missiles struggle to overcome western made air defense systems such as SAMP/T and Patriot air defense batteries. We can expect, should Norway decide to place military aircraft at Svalbard, that these will be protected by modern air defense systems.
A more radical action by the Northern Fleet would be to invade and occupy Svalbard. It can count on the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade and the 200th Artic Brigade. Both units are positioned at the Russian-Norwegian border at the North Cape but trained to fight in the Arctic environment. Both units have however been deployed in Ukraine where they suffered significant losses. Norwegian intelligence reports estimate that both brigades lost 80% of their capabilities by the beginning of 2023. Given Russia’s difficulties in replacing their combat losses with trained personnel and modern equipment, the combat capabilities of both the 61st and 200th Brigades are questionable.
Even so, Russia lacks amphibious transportation in the Northern Fleet as it dispatched two Ropucha class and one Ivan-Gren class landing vessel to the Black Sea prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. All three vessels are currently trapped in the Black Sea until Turkey opens the Turkish Straits. Even if Russia invades Svalbard, it would then assign additional naval units to safeguard and patrol the area as Norwegian and NATO forces can be expected to interdict Russian attempts to supply an occupied Svalbard.
In conclusion, even though the Norwegian government does not plan to militarize Svalbard, the idea of militarization is enough for Russia to react and protest. Russia is aware that Svalbard, due to its geography, has a commanding positions in the Barents Sea. If militarized, Norwegian forces could present an aerial threat from two directions into the Russian bastion, striking as deep as the Novaya Zemlya archipelago. The Northern Fleet has several options to deal with a militarized Svalbard though it would stretch their naval assets over a larger area and across more missions then what it is currently trained for.