BERLIN – Germany’s nationwide unlimited €58 monthly transport pass, dubbed the Deutschlandticket, got a surprising lifeline from the country’s incoming conservative-led coalition government, who’ve agreed to keep the subsidies flowing for offer.

Was that because the Deutschlandticket – which covers regional trains, subways, buses and trams all across Germany – has been wildly successful, with 13.5 million subscribers?

Supporters point to some evidence that the offer, rolled out in May 2023, helped cut greenhouse gas emissions and boost ridership on public transport systems.

But there’s also scepticism about whether the deal has lived up to the hype – or been the best way to spend the public hefty price tag, as German taxpayers have been kicking in €3 billion each year to subsidise the deal.

Cutting emissions
The government’s advisory committee on climate policy was unsure of the ticket’s direct effect on the climate in February, estimating its greenhouse gas (GHG) saving potential to be somewhere between 0.44 and 2.8 megatonnes. The government-backed research cluster Ariadne recently calculated them to be between 4 and 6.49 megatonnes. 

But those are relatively miniscule figures compared to Germany’s total emissions of 649 megatonnes of GHG in 2024, including overall emissions from the transport sector of 143 megatonnes.

Range of usability
Both Germany’s statistical agency and university researchers have credited the Deutschlandticket with spurring Germans to use public transport or even walk for short-distance trips. Subscribers mainly use the transport passes to commute to work, but have increasingly been making use of the offer for weekend trips as well.

However, these effects remain limited to larger cities, which boast extensive public transport networks, and mainly cater to the needs of young white-collar workers, according to research from the Fraunhofer Institute that looked at the first year of the Deutschlandticket. 

In rural Germany, where public transport options can be as scarce as a single country bus per day, cars remain a necessity for most people for things like shopping trips to the supermarket. 

That’s fuelled a political divide over the ticket, with some politicians from sparsely populated regions deriding the offer as a subsidy for well-to-do urban dwellers – not entirely true, as long-distance commuters from outlying towns have pocketed big savings under the offer, but true enough.

Enable mobility for lower incomes

But more than location or conviction, the ticket’s price has been the key factor in making it accessible – particularly those who cannot afford to own a car or other means of transport.

A survey conducted as part of the Fraunhofer study found that its price was an “important” reason for those who decided against the ticket. On average, respondents called a proposed price of €53 “costly” and rejected a €75 monthly price tag as “too expensive”, while stating a “cheap price” they would consider would be as low as €35.

Meanwhile, the actual sales price of a single-month Deutschlandticket was hiked at the start of the year to €58 per month. That’s still a relative deal compared to what local monthly transit passes used to cost in many German cities, but no longer as much of an irresistible bargain.

Future price spiral?

Price could pose the biggest problem for the ticket’s future. Prices are scheduled to increase starting in 2029, and Friedrich Merz, Germany’s likely next chancellor, recently stated that the unsubsidised “full price” of a Deutschlandticket would be €90 a month.

Hikes to anywhere near that price would likely mean the number of subscribers would tumble – and in turn trigger a fatal spiral for the offer, as declining ridership and revenue requires further price hikes (or a return of subsidies).

It’s hardly a coincidence that the price hikes are only scheduled to start in 2029, just before Germany’s next national election and right before Merz’s expected four-year term as chancellor would end.

That kicks the hard choices of Deutschlandticket’s fate to Merz’s second term, or the next person in office.

(bts)