This is no lasting peace deal — so what next for Ukraine?

3 comments

1. Unusually, this year the Western and Orthodox religious calendars coincide and Easter is celebrated at the same time. The White House was said to be aiming, perhaps symbolically, for a truce in Ukraine by the festival. But as it is marked on Sunday across the globe, the war rages on.

   Despite the Kremlin’s surprise proposal on Saturday — to halt all hostilities in the east for 30 hours, from 6pm local time until midnight on Monday, a gesture he also made in Christmas 2023 — the Kremlin simultaneously admitted Russian forces were moving forwards.

   Both Russia and the United States suggest that the window of opportunity for negotiations may be closing. On Friday night President Trump said he would “take a pass” on attempting to broker peace in a matter of days if progress was not made soon.

   The consensus is that April 30, the end of Trump’s first hundred days in office, is when the current peace process runs out of road. As is, this looks like a four-way game of chicken, with Moscow, Kyiv, Washington and Brussels all hardening their positions rather than making real compromises

2. I think this is looking like the earlier chats on geopolitics where we note that the Trump Administration is made up of low calibre politicians. Unfortunately for the US, Russia and China are not led by donkeys and are one step ahead, at all times.

   When Kellog and Rubio come back from negotiations I’m reminded of the Jedi mind trick from Star Wars as they say how it’s Ukraine’s fault, no NATO for Ukraine etc.

   It would not be easy to solve the war. Only skilful negotiations or an absolute show of might would cause Russia to pause. Unfortunately, the US is looking like the schoolyard bully who has no real fighting skills other than brute strength and quickly gets bored when things get difficult.

3. My guess is having to fight off another attack from Russia after they get done re-supplying and shifting troops during the cease fire….they had a lasting peace deal with Russia no less and Russia torpedoed that to attack Ukraine. What good is the next peace deal? No good really and Ukraine should have never given up its nukes, sure they were being run by a Russian puppet but look how it has played out since that ouster.

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