The International Monetary Fund (IMF)’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) today forecast that the prices of fuel commodities are projected to decrease in 2025 by 7.9 percent, with a 15.5 percent decline in crude oil prices.

The projected decline in crude oil prices would have a significant impact on Guyana’s revenues from the industry.

Forecasting global growth at 2.8 percent, the IMF said this was lowered from its initial 3.3 percent forecast in January and attributed the decline to the Donald Trump administration’s announced global tariffs and subsequent trade tensions which followed.

Notably, the Brent crude price has been in the US$60s per barrel for a few weeks now, marking a decline from US$70s and US$80s  in January. This in turn will see Guyana receiving less on its oil share.

But with a fourth Floating Production, Storage and Offloading platform to begin oil extraction operations this year, total revenue from oil could rise compared to last year’s figure.

 The IMF report also states that the average price of oil in US dollars a barrel was $79.17 in 2024; the assumed price, based on futures markets, is $66.94 in 2025 and $62.38 in 2026.

According to  the WEO, which was released this morning at the IMF Spring Meetings being held at its Headquarters in Washington, there is a projected 15.8 percent drop in coal prices offset by a 22.8 percent increase in natural gas prices, the latter driven up by colder-than- expected weather and the halt of  Russian gas flow to Europe through Ukraine since January 1.

Non-fuel commodity prices are projected to increase by 4.4 percent in 2025.

In terms of economic performance, the report states that the Caribbean, including Guyana, will record Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 4.2 percent this year and 8.6 percent in 2026.

Real GDP is the economic output adjusted for inflation. The survey, which was conducted by IMF staff, also predicts that Consumer Prices will rise 6.3% and 5.9% for 2025 and 2026 respectively.

For the purposes of the World Economic Outlook survey, the IMF classifies the Caribbean as Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.