• Comments come as Sinn Fein push for one to be held by 2030
A Northern Ireland Office minister has indicated that opinion polls will determine if and when a border referendum is called.
NI voters still favour the Union over a united Ireland – but gap narrows to 7%, poll finds
Fleur Anderson’s comments are the first indication of the criteria that could trigger a vote on the constitutional arrangements.
Last night, the NIO appeared to distance itself from her comments, saying “responsibility for a referendum sits solely with the Secretary of State”.
The comments from Ms Anderson, who is Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, appeared in an AgendaNI article.
It came on a weekend which saw Sinn Fein renew calls for a border poll by 2030.
Under the Good Friday Agreement, the power to call a border poll rests with the Secretary of State.
The legislation states the NI Secretary should call a referendum on Irish unity “if it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the UK and form part of a united Ireland”.
However, there are no set criteria for when a referendum would be triggered.
Previous secretaries of state have refused to outline what exactly would be required.
Asked by Agenda NI, Ms Anderson said: “It would be based on opinion polls.”
Last night the NIO said: “The responsibility for a referendum sits solely with the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.
“This is clearly set out in the Northern Ireland Act 1998, which gives effect to the Good Friday Agreement and the principle of consent.
“This has been — and remains — the only condition. The Secretary of State has been clear that there is no evidence that this condition has been met.”
Asked if she would campaign in favour of maintaining the Union in any border poll, Ms Anderson says: “That is up to the people of Northern Ireland. We want to support all communities. If it ever came to a vote, we would support the democratic process.”
Asked if she is a unionist, the MP for Putney says she is “not sure” if she is and that she is “not one community or another. I am not one side or another.”
However, when asked if she favours Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK, Ms Anderson replied: “Yes, I think the Union is a strong way of supporting everyone across the United Kingdom.”
Earlier this year, a LucidTalk poll published by the Belfast Telegraph showed that 48% of Northern Ireland voters want to stay in the UK, whilst 41% are in favour of constitutional change.
In last year’s Westminster election, the total unionist vote was just over 43% while the nationalist vote was slightly over 40%.
The margins on the constitutional status have narrowed slightly, according to polls for this newspaper.
In a survey last year there was a 10-point gap between the two sides; with 49% supporting staying in the UK, while 39% wanted Irish unity.
In our most recent survey, 10% of people said they were unsure how they’d vote, while 1% would abstain or spoil their ballot.
While almost nine in 10 nationalists (86%) want a border poll within the next decade, three-quarters (74%) of unionists say one should never be called.
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Support for Irish unity is strongest with the younger generation. Among voters under 35, 50% want a united Ireland, with 44% choosing the Union.
The DUP has previously said Northern Ireland does not need a “divisive” border poll.
However, Sinn Fein has urged the Dublin government to begin planning for a referendum.
This isn’t the first time an NIO Minister has commented on a border poll.
In 2023, then NI Minister Steve Baker reportedly said a border poll should need the support of a “super-majority”, rather than a simple 50% plus one majority.
Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris later said there had been no shift in UK government policy on the terms of any future referendum
Ms Anderson, who has been an MP since 2019, was appointed to her NIO role by Prime Minister Keir Starmer after last July’s election.
Senator George Mitchell’s plea for young people to remain in NI unfairly saddles them with our troubled past
by Jeffreys_therapist
17 comments
Given Varadkar’s comments the other week, there’s clearly an agreed position that both Dublin and London hold with respect to the ‘choreography’ around this issue.
The ball is in the court of the (an) Irish government to outline what a 32C island would look like, so that the undecideds’ position can be polled and recorded.
Only then will this give Hilary an accurate assessment of the desire for reunification
Meanwhile, the DUP continue to charm their overseas bankers
[DUP slams ‘disgraceful’ comments by NIO Minister who hinted Irish unity referendum decision would be ‘based on opinion polls’](https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/dup-slams-disgraceful-comments-by-nio-minister-who-hinted-irish-unity-referendum-decision-would-be-based-on-opinion-polls/a377188323.html)
Even if it’s officially downplayed or even retracted she has set it out now and this will be the metric used going forward.
The buzz is that the Labour Government have putting out feelers about announcing a border poll after the NI marching season ends, early next September. That’s why there’s been so much chatter about it lately from all corners.
It seems that Reform Party/GB-News types have been tipped off about it and are already predicting a backlash.
Opinion poll, seriously? It’s not like they’ve been proven to be absolutely useless this past ten years.
UNITED IRELAND POSTS 🤮
Right, so, if an opinion poll is what might trigger a poll, then we’re definitely owed a lot more clarity about how that’s going to work. Which polls? How many? Over what time? What if the current Irish government still shows no interest? Are opinion polls even reliable?
If/when polling, again, if reliable, starts to reflect a majority in favour of unification there needs to be substantial planning started before a dates agreed. This cannot be allowed to become another Brexit. Far too much at stake.
It always puzzles me why Sinn Féin doesn’t play a smarter game with opinion polls. The current ones all seem to ask – ‘how would you vote tomorrow’ – which underrepresents support, as no one knows what a UI will be like.
Why doesn’t SF commission private polling that gauges UI support in different scenarios? Like if XYZ parameters like taxes, health provisions, social security, etc were at different levels.
Then they might be able to prove there are scenarios where UI support would be 50%+1 for all age groups, not just younger demographics.
There will NEVER be a “United Ireland “ because nobody wants it but sure keep talking about it for another 40 years if it helps you sleep at night.
“Freudian slip results in Irish Reunification!” 🙂
Isn’t a big criteria going to be for that partitionist Martin to be out of power? He’s dragging his heels because he’s afraid of Sinn Féin gaining a massive influx of voters from Northern Nationalists.
What does Irish unity mean? Bored of all this sound bite nonsense
The “New Irelanders” will soon start talking about 2035 poll….then 2040….oh maybe then 2060….or 2150?
The goalposts keep moving! It’ll never happen! 😂
A United Ireland has always been my political dream but I’m just not sure if we’re at a stage that we’d win it as of yet.
Although I suppose when really is a good time. The arguments would have to be made during the campaign and hopefully the pro-unity campaign will do enough to convince people.
Although the way the FF/FG shower are running the South at the minute wouldn’t exactly convince me if I lived in the North.
Can we not just do a reddit poll and sort it
Is healthcare better in the Republic though compared to healthcare in the UK?
Some of us have chronic diseases and disabled kids. We can’t afford to pay for GP visits and what happens to kids with severe and profound disabilities who need expensive medicines, multiple doctor visits per year, complicated surgeries, expensive equipment for their daily needs and eventually residential care?
Who is going to provide this after unification and who’s gonna pay for it? The consensus is that NHS is bad but in reality there are many people who are heavily dependent on it for medicines, medical services and elderly care and it is actually doing a great job for the strain it is under.
What about work? A lot of people are employed by the health service, public service, etc. What job opportunities are there going to be for those people? We can’t all work as developers in Dublin.
It’s all sunshine and roses when you’re young, healthy and relatively free of responsibilities but there are practicalities that need to be addressed before unification happens.
There is a choreography around 2030.
It’ll be more of a ‘Hong Kong’ type handover.
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