Russia is expected to see its oil and gas revenues for April slump by 22% from a year ago, amid lower oil prices and a stronger local currency, according to Reuters calculations.
Russia’s revenues from hydrocarbons are set to be about $11.6 billion (960 billion Russian rubles) in April, also due to lower profit-based taxes compared to the previous month, per the estimates by Reuters published on Thursday.
Official data from Russia’s finance ministry is expected on May 7.
In March, Russian revenues from oil and gas plunged by 17% from a year earlier, according to data from Russia’s finance ministry.
Oil and gas revenues for the Kremlin fell to $13.2 billion (1.1 trillion Russian rubles) last month, while revenues for the first quarter dipped by nearly 10% on the year to $31.8 billion (2.64 trillion rubles), the official Russian data showed in early April.
Proceeds from oil and gas sales are the most important cash stream for Russia’s federal budget.
Earlier this week, Russia’s Economy Ministry lowered its forecast for oil prices this year in an update for its baseline scenario, reflecting the latest trends on global oil markets.
Per the new scenario, Brent crude will average $68 per barrel in 2025, down from $81.70 per barrel in the September 2024 scenario, Interfax reported. The ministry also updated its oil price forecast for the next two years, expecting Brent crude at an average of $72 per barrel for 2026, down from $77, to remain at $72 in 2027 as well, down from an earlier projection of $74.50 per barrel.
The lower price that Russian crude fetches could hit Russia’s economy, Russia’s Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina warned earlier this month.
“If the escalation of the tariff wars continues, this usually leads to a decline in global trade and the global economy and, possibly, demand for our energy resources. Therefore, there are risks here,” Nabiullina was quoted as saying.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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