Trump’s peace deal is terrible. Ukraine should still accept it

10 comments

1. The deal is a terrible one, at odds with both international law and basic decency. But it may yet prove impossible for Ukraine or its other western allies to improve the terms as long as Trump remains in the White House. For all their courage, Ukrainians cannot afford to fight for another three years and nine months without America’s backing.

   There are of course grounds to worry that, if accepted, this deal will only embolden Vladimir Putin, just as the West’s acquiescence to Russian gains following his 2008 invasion of Georgia and his 2014 seizure of Crimea encouraged him to take the biggest gamble of his rule and mount a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

   These are arguments against the current peace terms that it is for America and its European partners to consider. But Ukraine, locked in an existential struggle for survival, does not have the luxury of worrying about other’s countries’ fates.

   The Trump administration has so far seemed determined to wash its hands of the whole situation if Kyiv rejects this latest version of the deal. A reported counter-proposal in which the US would provide firm security guarantees for Ukraine seems a non-starter.

   Europeans and other allies could try and fill some of the gaps. However, they cannot make up the entire shortfall, especially in key areas such as long-range air defence. They could try and buy what they cannot produce, such as Patriot surface-to-air missiles, but in this case they would find themselves in a queue behind other customers who are higher on Washington’s priority list, such as Israel. Ukraine needs them now.

   A British officer working with the Ukrainians was downbeat. “We’re not talking about a Ukrainian collapse,” he said. “But we are likely to see Russia able to make faster, cheaper gains.” In other words, if Ukraine fights on , there is every reason to believe that at some point in the future its leaders will eventually find themselves forced to swallow even harsher terms.

2. “The deal is a terrible one, at odds with both international law and basic decency. But it may yet prove impossible for Ukraine or its other western allies to improve the terms as long as Trump remains in the White House. For all their courage, Ukrainians cannot afford to fight for another three years and nine months without America’s backing.”

   I stoped reading here because this statment is false.

   – EU only needs a 0,4 GDP increase to cover up the share USA money was given.

   – Ukraine can lower the age of conscription to 18.

   – Midterms in USA can change everything.

3. I disagree. The first rule for any sane person is that you don’t negotiate with unreliable, dishonest people unless you have the power to enforce the terms. Ukraine can’t enforce the terms against Russia or the USA.

   So there is literally no benefit at all, not even the perceived benefit of the fighting stopping, because as soon as it benefits Russia, it’ll start again. They may as well keep going and hope Russia collapses first. It just might, too. We can’t see exactly what’s going on inside, but the eagerness in Russia for this peace deal is all the reason for Ukraine to not accept it.

4. It’s a fallacy that the international community must recognize US in the negotiation. The current admin has shown a clear break with Europe and won’t even acknowledge the fact that Russia is the aggressor in the conflict. It’s time for the EU to stand up to a leadership role where the US has failed. Let the US wash their hands of negotiations.

5. Using economic coercion and calling it a “deal”.

6. I really hate clickbait trash attention grabbing titles like this, but the article isn’t wrong. Ukraine is never going to get “1,000 Abrams” or some ludicrous amount of air power required to gain real air superiority. European troops aren’t going to enter Ukraine and start shooting Russians, no matter how much they say they “might consider it” (they won’t). Ukraine’s Western allies were never going to give Ukraine what it needed to win, merely enough to survive. Certainly not with Trump in the US, and with unwilling Europeans who are still doing the absolute bare minimum in terms of re-armament and defense promises.

   Russian forces have exhausted an insane amount of troops and material, but they have more and the industry to produce more. Will the Russian populace and economy suffer? Yes, but not fast enough to help Ukraine retake the occupied territory. There is no realistic scenario where Ukraine sends troops into Crimea, Donetsk, or so on. There are plenty of scenarios where Ukraine loses more ground.

   The fact that after 3 years fighting a land war against the world’s second largest military Ukraine is not only still in the fight, but also lost a mere 20% of its territory is astounding. But what is Ukraine supposed to do now? Grind on for 2-3 more years, draft and depopulate its 18+ age demographic, and keep withstanding missiles that devastate the country further? Continuing the war will at best lead to more destruction, at worst lead to more Russian gains.

   Freezing the war frontlines won’t necessarily lead to a divided Ukraine forever. Nations have reunited multiple times throughout history. Russia will have to deal with a suspiciously well armed insurgency in Eastern Ukraine for many years (which is incredibly ironic). Russia’s frozen state assets will go to rebuilding a smaller, but unified and Democratic Ukraine. Ukraine now has many strong Western partners and has finally broken away from Russia for good. Yes they might not get the Disney movie picture perfect outcome, but there was never a realistic scenario where they were.

7. It is pretty painful watching Mark Galeotti twist himself into knots trying to put lipstick on this pig.

   He actually says “This deal does not include constraints on Ukraine’s capacity to defend itself”, *after* he has acknowledged that it would bar NATO membership for Ukraine and that Russia is demanding limitations on the Ukrainian armed forces.

   He further says “There are no restrictions on other military alliances or even the presence of foreign troops on its soil”, and so makes convenient and self serving assumptions about a deal that has not even been negotiated yet.

   He continues, apparently in all seriousness, with…

   > Potential European Union membership offers Ukraine the prospect not just of greater prosperity but also security, as the Treaty of Europe commits all members to mutual defence

   …apparently forgetting that the EU is not a military alliance, and aspirational language Eurocrats inserted into a treaty when they assumed there was never going to be another war in Europe is likely to be completely worthless if the moment ever comes where members are called upon to honour that commitment.

   He acknowledges Ukraine won’t get any security guarantees in exchange for agreeing to a deal, while adding hopefully that “that does not preclude them from being provided separately” – though he is ominously mum on the key question of who is going to provide them.

   Finally, he suggests Vladimir Putin is actually going to be ok with the seizure of Russian assets as reparations, a neat bit of wishful thinking that is he is likely to be brutally disbursened of the moment real negotiations actually begin.

   In short, if you look at a potential peace deal from just the right angle, and squint hard enough, and tell yourself enough lies, and indulge in enough self serving assumptions about what terms the deal will actually include, you could almost just about convince yourself this is something less than a complete sellout of the West’s principles and Ukraine’s interests.

   Whatever helps you sleep at night, Professor.

8. If Trump withdraws in any case, then Ukraine loses nothing by not accepting it.

9. Really, it’s only partly about the funding and the weapons. They are basically out of human capital…. i.e. cannon fodder. Ukraine will likely never recover from this. You just can not remove a significant percentage of the male population between 18 and 50 and re-populate.

   They will require cultural enrichment, which I am sure the EU leadership can provide. In exchange for certain ‘commodities’ of course.

10. I agree with this article Ukraine simply cannot sustain the war for much longer.
    Even if it receives European armaments instead of American, and somehow manages to source shells, for example, buying them from America, what also may be not the option, it still doesn’t have enough people to continue fighting. There are almost no men left who are willing to fight. Mobilization is already extremely difficult, even though it is often forced: people are simply grabbed off the streets and taken to recruitment centers, where health checks are conducted, but most pass them anyway, even with poor health. As a result, some people barely leave their apartments, sending their wives to work instead. Others take the risk and might just track the locations of recruitment patrols through special channels. Some have disability certificates, though these are not always genuine. And it is only few methods. So there are many official and unofficial ways to evade mobilization. Even those who still live in Ukraine are very difficult to send to the front, and even if they are sent, they have no real motivation, which is a very important factor. Recently, there was a program offering major benefits for young people who sign military contracts, but only about 500 people agreed. Lowering the conscription age to 18, as some Redditors here suggest, would hardly solve the problem: there are few willing young people too, so the with them are the same problems and the number of people in that age group is relatively small anyway. Now compare that to russia’s situation: they still have a large population to draw from, and it remains relatively easy to mobilize people, plus there is the potential reserve from North Korea. Ukraine simply has no better alternatives.
    If it refuses to agree to this treaty, the next deal will be made from an even weaker position, or Ukraine might cease to exist altogether.

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