India’s import of Russian oil touched its highest level since May 2023 in April despite US sanctions due to their favorable Free on Board (FOB) discounts relative to West African and Middle Eastern barrels, according to data from global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler. The country’s market share in Indian imports rose to 40% in April, up from 39% a year ago.

While Russia remained the largest supplier, Iraq solidified its second position, offering steady Basrah volumes, followed by Saudi Arabia. 

As India strengthens its ties with Saudi Arabia with the announcement of new refinery projects, analysts expect a potential increase in Saudi oil flows into the country, allowing it to regain its market share in India’s import basket.

As per the data, India’s crude oil imports from Russia for April 2025 are estimated at 2.1 million barrels per day. “However, trade flows remain in the liquid phase, and cargoes might slip into May’s arrivals, and April’s total crude import from Russia might slip below 2.0 Mbd and close around 1.9-2.0 Mbd,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining & modeling at Kpler. 

Actual arrivals through April 25th stand at approximately 1.9 mbd, with Urals comprising about 77% and lighter grades the remaining 23%. Ritolia noted that the current sanctions regime, lacking secondary enforcement on buyers or insurers, continues to allow Russian oil trade to function uninterrupted.

Provided that margins remain strong and sanctions remain limited in scope with favorable economics, Kpler expects Russian crude to maintain a 30%-35% share in India’s crude mix in the short term. “That said, our data also points to a modest rebound in Russian refining throughput by 100–300 thousand barrels per day (kbd) over the next few months, which could reduce export availability by a similar margin. This may slightly temper flows post-May,” said Ritolia.

India’s total crude oil imports in April are expected to reach approximately 5.2 -5.3 million barrels per day, as per Kpler data. “Trade flows remain fluid, and some cargoes may slip into May’s arrivals,” Ritolia said.

India is estimated to have imported 1.02 mbd of oil from Iraq in April, up from 889,000 bpd the previous month. Imports from Saudi Arabia stood at 539,000 bpd, down from 565,000 bpd in March. Oil imports from the US however, registered an increase to 337,000 bpd in April from 289,000 bpd last month.

While Saudi Arabia has traditionally been one of India’s top oil suppliers, competition from Russia and other exporters has shifted the dynamics in recent years. However, with renewed collaborations and investment initiatives between India and Saudi Arabia, it is likely that Saudi Arabia could regain a stronger foothold in India’s oil import basket, experts say.

“The new refinery projects are expected to significantly boost India’s oil sector by enhancing refining capacity, improving the ability to process a wider range of crude grades, and reducing reliance on imported refined products. This will not only meet domestic demand more efficiently but also position India as a key player in regional refined product exports,” Ritolia said. 

However, a lot of the refinery plans are still mostly in the discussion stage, and even if they move ahead, any major project would typically take 4–6 years to start up. So, in the short term, we may not see a big immediate boost, he highlighted.

India’s refining capacity is already set to rise from 5,282 kbd in March 2025 to 5,935 kbd by the end of 2027, driven by around 652 kbd of new capacity from various greenfield and brownfield projects. These expansions will definitely create more demand for Saudi crude volumes over the medium term, as per Kpler.

India’s oil demand growth rate is now expected to surpass China’s, making it one of the fastest-growing consumption centres, prompting the country’s refiners to accelerate expansion plans and widen crude diversification, as per S&P Global Commodity Insights.

“In 2025, India is forecast to deliver a relatively faster growth in oil demand of 3.2%, compared with China’s 1.7%,” Kang Wu, global head of macro and oil demand research at S&P Global Commodity Insights had said.

As India’s refining capacity is set to rise, refiners and policymakers are intensifying efforts to diversify the crude import basket to reduce overdependence on a few supplying countries or regions.

India, which imports as much as 88% of its needs, has said that it will continue buying oil from the cheapest available sources to meet growing demand, with Russian oil falling in that category due to attractive discounts.