Sursa: Cosmin Marinescu

With the support of the Board of Directors of the National Bank of Romania, we initiated the creation of a platform for research, debate and economic education entitled Economic@BNR, a context in which the study European Romania – Developments, Progress, Challenges, a comparative and prospective graphic picture of Romania’s position in relation to the countries in the region and within the European Union was published.

Through Economic@BNR we aim to facilitate the debate on relevant topics related to national and international public developments and policies, starting from the need to deepen and communicate substantiated certain topics of current affairs and interest.

Whether we refer to the sphere of individual options or to the dimension of public policies, access to truthful information and “quality” analysis, understanding the functioning of markets and economic mechanisms, the ability to transform experiences into lessons learned are essential ingredients in the correct substantiation of economic judgments and decisions.

In recent years, we have witnessed not only the exponential increase in the volume of specific data and information, but also the continuous diversification of the way in which they are used in the substantiation of decisions and policies, but also in the (re)shaping of the public perception regarding the balance of costs and advantages through which various changes of vision and commercial strategies are justified,  or even far-reaching geopolitical orientations.

The foreshadowing of such changes, as well as their implications for the national economy and for economic policy decisions, implies convergent efforts of analysis and research on the part of the relevant authorities, but also the assumption of a proactive role in debating the elements of vision regarding the directions of economic development.

European Romania – Developments, Progress, Challenges is the first study carried out within  the Economic@BNR project, a study represented by a comprehensive graphic table, based on the analysis of over 100 specific indicators, through which Romania’s progress and measurable benefits as a member state of the European Union are assessed.

The theme reflects, moreover, the continuation of some concerns started at the level of the Presidential Administration, regarding the evaluation of Romania’s progress and the national trajectory of path-dependence, which were topics of analysis in the article published in 2024 under the title European Romania: where we started from, where we are, what we have to do.

The progress was evaluated both on the basis of national, structural and sectoral dynamics, as well as on the positioning elements of Romania in relation to other countries, especially in relation to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, but also within the European Union as a whole.

The National Bank of Romania press release shows the following main findings of this study:

Romania registered the fastest real convergence among EU countries, with the current level of GDP per capita at purchasing power parity being over 75% compared to the Eurozone average, in the context in which national economic growth was generally above the EU average.
The share of Romania’s international trade in economic activity has registered upward trends, with a visible and consistent growth rate of exports of medium and high technology, amid investments aimed at modernizing the economy.
Foreign direct investment, most of which comes mainly in industry, banking, trade and services, from European countries, has contributed substantially to job creation, the integration of technological advancement and productivity growth.
The progressive reduction of the share of the informal economy in GDP has allowed the improvement of working conditions and facilitated the population’s access to more sources of financing.
The Romanian banking sector continued to improve its resilience to shocks and the financing capacity of the economy, with both solvency and liquidity being consistently above the European Union averages.
In the field of energy, Romania benefits from major competitive advantages at regional level, through the lowest degree of regional energy dependence, making considerable progress in terms of efficiency in the use of primary energy sources.
With a total net benefit for Romania of approximately €70 billion, European funds continue to finance major investments in the modernization of the economy and reforms necessary to increase the quality of governance and public policies.

For Romania, joining the European Union was a crucial step, which considerably influenced the country’s development trajectory. The notable progress of the last decades, economically, socially and institutionally, shows that Romania has navigated quite well among the opportunities and challenges of belonging to the Union. However, the continuation of the modernization path and the adequate management of current risks and challenges imply, in the coming years, a qualitative leap in terms of public policies and economic governance.

Joining the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, the Eurozone and strengthening the position in NATO are options with undeniable advantages for Romania. At the same time, in the dynamics of the new global trade context, an essential factor is aimed at strengthening and expanding external economic partnerships, especially in key areas such as nuclear energy, defense industry, advanced technology.

The economic picture of 2025 is one dominated by uncertainties and challenges, economic and political, internal and external.

For Romania, the essential challenges remain related to the consolidation of public finances and financial sustainability, especially after the 2024 slippage of the budget deficit, which reached 9.3% (ESA) of GDP, and in the context of a strongly upward trajectory of public debt, especially in recent years.

In this context, it is important that the need for a substantive intervention on the problem of the budget deficit is circumscribed to a medium- and long-term economic vision, as the corrective measures currently decided will guide the country’s economic path over several years. The lack of such measures risks amplifying other structural problems of the Romanian economy, but also leading to the loss of key opportunities, such as investment opportunities and reforms related to the absorption of European funds.

In this regard, the study also highlights a number of current challenges, such as:

The burden of twin deficits – the budget deficit and external deficits, which generate the need for consistency in the adjustment and rearrangement of the fiscal-budgetary framework, in order to restore macroeconomic balances and ensure sustainability;
The low degree of financial intermediation, a key factor in its growth being the continued transformation of the economy towards a high value-added one, including through the consistent use of European funds;
The strong upward trajectory of public debt in recent years, which underlines the need for consistent and sustainable fiscal consolidation;
The need to catch up with the countries in the region and with the European average in terms of transport infrastructure, both road and rail, developments closely related to the absorption of European funds.

Beyond the commonplaces and sensitive topics that are reflected, probably inherently, in any synthesis analysis, I am convinced that the objective evaluation of Romania’s European path has not only the value of an exercise in economic realism, indispensable for honest debate at national level, but also constitutes at the same time a source of ideas and solutions in terms of public policies,  through responsible measures and sustainable directions for Romania.

Download study “European Romania – Developments, Progress, Challenges“

 

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