The oil market managed to trade marginally higher in the early morning today, with ICE Brent trading above $67/bbl. Market participants are waiting for more clarity over the conflicting signals from the ongoing US-China trade talks. Meanwhile, the US and Iran talks of a deal over the nuclear programme continue to remain constructive, with both countries agreeing to meet again in Europe soon. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on 5 May to discuss output plans for June.
The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net longs in ICE Brent by 29,432 lots (after reporting declines for two straight weeks) to 128,383 lots as of last Tuesday. This was driven predominantly by the liquidation of short positions. There was also a small portion of new longs entering the market. Similarly, in NYMEX WTI, speculators boosted their net long by 36,132 lots for a second consecutive week to 147,331 lots over the reporting week, the highest bullish bets since the last week of January. This market continues to gauge the potential tariff impact on oil flows into the US.
The latest data from Baker Hughes shows that drilling activity in the US rose for the second consecutive week, marking the first back-to-back rise since February. The number of active US oil rigs rose by two over the week to 483 as of 25 April 2025. However, the oil rig count is still down by 23 compared to this time last year. The total rig count (oil and gas combined) stood at 587 over the reporting week, up from 585 a week earlier, but 4.7% lower than the same time last year. Primary Vision’s frac spread count, which gives an idea of completion activity, increased by five over the week to 205.
In gas, natural gas prices in Europe extended declines for a fourth straight session and fell around 4.9% day-on-day at one point in time to trade below EUR32/MWh (the lowest since July) on Friday. Prices came under pressure following the increased supply availability and lower demand in Asia. Europe is steadily expanding its gas storage, fuelling optimism about the timely availability of supplies for the upcoming heating season. The latest GIE data shows that storage is more than 38% full as of 26 April, compared to a five-year average of 48.7% and the 61.7% levels seen at the same stage last year. Meanwhile, there are suggestions that shipments of liquefied natural gas have been arriving at higher levels than usual for the time of year amid weaker consumption in Asia.
Similarly, US natural gas prices hovered near the lowest level since November following the mild weather and ample inventories. There are suggestions that the weekly inventories will continue to report inflows, after witnessing a higher-than-expected increase last week, as weather remains unfavourable. Total stockpiles are nearly in line with the five-year average, and there is plenty of stored gas heading into summer.