A confession to start: I haven’t made a list of papabili—the cardinals considered frontrunners to become pope—not because I think I’m
above it or want to seem aloof. The truth is, I simply can’t decide. The
exercise gives me anxiety. It’s too subjective.

Still, I wanted something to work from, so I built an Excel spreadsheet titled Papabili Analysis. My goal was to identify the most objective criteria possible, and I settled on five.

To become pope, a cardinal generally needs to…

Be the right age and in good healthHave a clean reputationBe recognized for spiritual depth or theological expertiseShow leadership and crisis management skillsHave a global pastoral vision

These criteria, expressed as data points, help
identify which cardinals entering the Sistine Chapel are least disadvantaged by
age, language, education, and other factors. But in the end, the conclave will
decide based on its reading of the historical moment — and an act of faith.

1. Age and
Health

Between 59 and 78 years old.

I began by reviewing the ages of popes at the
time of their election, starting from the French Revolution. In the 19th
century, the average age was 62. In the first half of the 20th: 64. Since 1945:
70. There’s wide variation between popes (a standard deviation of 7 since Pius
VI).

The last two popes were notably older — Francis
at 76, Benedict XVI at 78. That seems like a reasonable upper limit. So I
applied a penalty to the 16 cardinals born before 1947, and a double penalty if
they’re known to have health issues.

Oddly enough, I believe being too young is a
disadvantage. John Paul II was elected at 59, and his long pontificate is still
remembered — not always positively — in Vatican circles. So I also gave a
sliding penalty to the 12 cardinals born after 1966.

2. Reputation

No scandals, and no polarizing positions —
whether progressive or conservative.

I tracked the allegations some cardinals have
faced. At conclave time, old dossiers will resurface. Everyone in the College
knows this.

Nine cardinals, including Cardinal Rainer Maria Woelki of Cologne,
have faced criticism over their handling of sexual abuse cases. Their penalties
were steeper than those given to, say, curial cardinals known for frequenting
upscale restaurants.

I also assessed public positions. While
“progressive” and “conservative” are tricky labels in the church, moderation tends to be valued — unity matters. Publicly backing
same-sex blessings (like Cardinal De Kesel) or warning of “Islamization of
Europe” (like Cardinals Turkson or Sarah) can be liabilities. I applied equal
penalties across the board.

Altogether, 50 cardinals were penalized to
varying degrees based on reputation.

3. Spiritual
or Theological Credentials

A doctorate — ideally from Rome — and at least
150 Google Scholar citations.

I reviewed the academic backgrounds of recent
popes. Before Francis (whose education was more eclectic), the six prior popes
all held doctorates in theology or canon law, usually from pontifical or German
universities. I gave a sliding penalty to 71 cardinals without a comparable
doctorate. Sixty-one electors hold doctorates; 55 of those are in theology
or canon law.

Then I looked at Google Scholar, which aggregates
academic citations. On average, electors had been cited 220 times. I penalized
the 102 cardinals cited fewer than 150 times, and especially the 36 cited
fewer than 10 times.

I didn’t give bonus points, but for the record,
here are the most-cited cardinals (800+ mentions): Mendonça, Marx, Müller,
Koch, Radcliffe, Parolin, Dolan, Fernandez, Spengler, Erdő.

One last note: I find it unlikely that the
College would elect a second Jesuit pope, a sentiment shared by a senior Jesuit
I spoke with in Rome this week. So I penalized the four Jesuit electors (Rossi,
Chow, Czerny, Hollerich).

4. Leadership
and Crisis Management

Curial experience, Italian fluency, seniority,
and public visibility.

I penalized the 72 electors who’ve never held a
cross-border leadership role — such as working in the Roman Curia, heading a
religious order, or leading a continental bishops’ conference.

I applied a sliding scale penalty for poor
Italian — the working language of the Vatican. I identified 21 non-Italian
speakers and seven with only basic proficiency. In doubtful cases, no penalty
was applied.

How long had previous popes been cardinals before
their election? Francis: 13 years. Benedict: 28. John Paul II: 11. That’s about
average since the 18th century. So I penalized 57 cardinals who were made
cardinals too recently or over 30 years ago.

For public visibility, I checked how many Google
search results each pope’s name had generated before their election: 12,500 for
“Jorge Bergoglio” before March 2013, and 11,000 for “Joseph Ratzinger” before
April 2005. I penalized 17 cardinals with fewer than 10,000 results.

5. Global
Pastoral Vision

Participation in the Synod on Synodality — and
(bonus) multilingualism.

Francis personally appointed 108 of the 134
electors. The 2025 College is full of recent appointees who don’t all know each
other — except those who took part in the Synod on Synodality. In 2024 and
2025, 61 cardinals sat at roundtables together, sharing ideas. I penalized the
others.

That said, participation didn’t guarantee
alignment with the synod’s conclusions (for example, Cardinal Müller also
attended).

For the only bonus in the spreadsheet, I awarded
points to the 35 multilingual cardinals. One standout: Cardinal Virgilio David
of the Philippines, who speaks English, Pampangan, French, Flemish, German,
Italian, Spanish — and reads Latin, Greek, and Aramaic. His linguistic ability
opens doors. Another example: Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero of Morocco, who
speaks French, Spanish, and Portuguese, enabling him to join different synod
discussion groups.

Final
Thoughts: Expect the Unexpected

By this method, Jorge Bergoglio would have ranked
in the middle third of the list in 2013 — too old, considered frail, no
doctorate.

Still, based on these five criteria, here are the
cardinals with the fewest penalties (in alphabetical order):

Carlos Aguiar RetesBlase CupichPablo Virgilio DavidSérgio da RochaPéter ErdőMario GrechClaudio GugerottiKurt KochPietro ParolinMarcello SemeraroLuis Antonio TagleLazarus You Heung-sikMatteo Maria Zuppi

Figures may change depending on attendance.
Cardinal Antonio Cañizares Llovera has said he will not come for health
reasons. There was much uncertainty over the attendance of Cardinal Angelo Becciu, who has
appealed a first-instance conviction for embezzlement and is not currently
being counted. The Vatican reported April 29 that Becciu has renounced his participation in the conclave to elect a new pope.