Tue, 29th Apr 2025
Geopolitical uncertainty is defining the economic landscape in 2025. EIU’s latest Global outlook report outlines a worsening global environment marked by rising protectionism, policy unpredictability, and growing pressure on supply chains.
At the centre is a shift in US policy. President Trump’s renewed focus on tariffs—particularly targeting China—has pushed US import duties to their highest level in decades. These measures have disrupted trade flows and raised the risk of retaliation, compounding instability across markets.
The EIU now expects the US economy to enter recession this year, with a forecasted contraction of 0.1%. The Federal Reserve, already facing a difficult policy environment, is likely to make deeper rate cuts than previously anticipated. As inflation trends become harder to interpret, the risk of stagflation is back on the table.
Outside the US, major economies including China, Japan and the EU are feeling the effects of this new trade reality. Global productivity is slowing. Business confidence is under strain. Supply chains are vulnerable—not just to shocks, but to sustained political pressure.
The outlook for 2025 is not just about risk, but also about exposure. How are markets adjusting to tariff regimes? Where are there windows for growth, even amid rising volatility?
Read the full report to explore our latest forecasts and analysis.
The analysis and forecasts presented in this article are drawn from EIU’s Country Analysis service. This comprehensive solution offers essential insights into the political and economic outlook of nearly 200 countries, empowering businesses to manage risks and develop effective strategies.