Ex UK Mi6 Chief: “Putin Needs Ceasefire Badly. The War Has Been A Disaster”

7 comments

1. >Putin desperately needs a ceasefire, probably more than he realizes, because he is lied to by his military chiefs who are fearful of being demoted – or “falling out of a window.”

   This is why Russia will only take a peace deal seriously once its very obvious their position has collapsed and at the point they cannot hope to avoid the worst outcomes. This is why I do not currently take the possibility of a near term peace deal seriously.

   Classic dictator move to over estimate your strength, over play your position and as a result completely fail. And then its very possible Russia really falls apart because everyone refused to see the problems the war was creating building up. It not a certainty but its very often the result of strongman wars of aggression that fail.

2. In chess, you don’t offer a draw if your position is strong. If you’re loosing however…

3. They wont do any ceasefire that doesnt involve them getting all of the things Putin wants.

4. “”It would take the Russians 80 years to conquer Ukraine”.

   This same tired line again. I know, given his position, he knows better, but the war very obviously is not going to be determined by Russia capturing every square inch of Ukraine. It hasn’t been that way for over two years.

5. The problem is, he can’t survive a ceasefire.

6. As soon as the war time economy stops everything will implode. The only way he could do so is by robbing from Ukraine more than it already has.

7. Russia would be absolutely stupid not to take a ceasefire along the current lines.

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