London sets heat record as northwest Europe set for warm May

Northwest Europe started May with a mini-heat wave that set a temperature record in London, while more warm and dry weather is set to dominate the region this month.

After Ireland notched an all-time high for April earlier this week, the UK Met Office said London set a May 1 record of 28C on Thursday. There’s also a small chance the city could hit 30C, which would be the earliest time in the year that threshold has been reached in records going back to 1860. There’s also a heightened risk of wildfires in the UK capital, according to the London Fire Brigade.

Paris could touch 29C Thursday, with Berlin hitting highs of 27C on Friday. The high-pressure system driving the region’s first warm spell of the year is forecast to move out over the weekend, but higher-than-normal temperatures are expected for much of May, according to the Met Office and data from Atmospheric G2.

Temperatures across Europe are increasing due to climate change, according to Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern. Last year, the continent experienced its hottest ever year and since the 1980s, the region has warmed twice as fast as the global average.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the warmest May-April period on record,” McGivern said in a forecast briefing.

While the UK, France and Germany bask in summer-like conditions, the region will transition to below-normal temperatures next week and cooler, wetter weather will impact other parts of Europe during May.

Central and Eastern Europe, along with Nordic countries, are expected to be cooler-than-normal next week, according to Vaisala meteorologist Matthew Dross. Southwest Europe could also see heavy rain in mid-May, he said.

Dross expects cool conditions across parts western Russia, but that will probably stay north of the world’s top wheat-producing region, where harvests have been threatened by a sudden late-season cold snap.

The Iberian Peninsula could escape some of the warmest temperatures, data from Copernicus and Atmospheric G2 show. Brief warm periods in early and mid-May are expected, but the region should see cooler-than-normal conditions for much of the month.

Longer-term forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show average temperatures could stay a couple of degrees below the norm across Southern Europe and the Mediterranean.

But MetDesk meteorologist Ben Davis sees signs of unseasonably warm weather in the Mediterranean and southeast building in late May and early June. Those conditions could support a heat wave and an up-tick in storms in Western Europe.