Vladimir Putin. Photo: Getty Images

Western intelligence data indicates that Russian leader Vladimir Putin may have changed his short-term goals in the war against Ukraine to focus on already occupied territories and economic issues.

Source: CNN, citing sources

Details: Fresh intelligence seen by US and Western officials indicates that Putin may have shifted his immediate focus in the war against Ukraine to shorter-term goals – namely, tightening control over occupied territories and reviving Russia’s faltering economy, CNN reports, citing unnamed sources.

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Quote from CNN: “This represents an evolution from recent US and Western intelligence assessments suggesting that Putin felt the state of the war was to his advantage, that he had the momentum as well as the manpower to sustain a longer fight against a faltering Ukraine and seize the entire country.”

Details: Two US sources familiar with the matter said the perception that Putin may have shifted his stance has benefited President Donald Trump and his negotiators, who believe the Russian leader could now be more open to exploring a potential peace deal than he was previously.

However, senior US officials remain sceptical of Putin and his repeated assertions during negotiations that he seeks a peace deal, despite an “incredibly generous” US proposal on Ukrainian territory, which would allow Moscow to retain “most of the territory they’ve taken”.

CNN also reports a widespread belief that even if Russia agrees to the proposed deal, it may later attempt to reignite the war and seize more of Ukraine in the long term.

“I think that he may be thinking – I don’t want to say thinking smaller – but thinking about what a reasonable nearer-term objective is,” a senior Western intelligence official told CNN.

According to CNN, mounting pressure from an increasingly frustrated Trump administration, which is threatening to impose new sanctions, combined with Russia’s economic weakness, has placed Putin in a potentially difficult position.

Meanwhile, the talks strongly emphasised the potential for US-Russia investment if the war ends, an opportunity Washington described as “historic”.

“All of this really depends on what is the US willing to put on the table so that he could not just claim victory domestically,” the unnamed official added, noting “But really feel that he has achieved something that is worth a significant pause and then maybe retake up the fight at some point later.”

The official noted Putin’s frequent references to the historical origins of the Russian people and said the Kremlin ruler retains a “long-term objective” of seizing most of Ukraine, particularly the regions he views as “the cradle of Russian civilisation”.

A senior European official agreed that Moscow is willing to “play along” with the US and scale back its immediate aims to improve ties with Washington, but stressed that it “clearly hasn’t given up on their maximalist war ends”.

The Kremlin hopes that an improved relationship “draws the attention away after a tactical pause and that they can then use the mix of military, economic, informational and political tools to achieve Putin’s full objectives in Ukraine and beyond,” the official said.

Earlier this year, US intelligence officials warned senior Trump advisers that, aside from regime survival, controlling Ukraine remained Putin’s top priority. They cautioned that he was keen to exploit any perceived eagerness for negotiations by the new administration, a source familiar with the discussions said.

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