The latest Russian offensive has largely petered out, at terrible human cost. Russia is not close to conquering the four oblasts so presumptuously annexed. “The movements on the map are tiny, and have nothing of strategic value. Ukraine is big enough to trade space for time,” said a Western military expert on the ground.

by hanmerhand

11 comments

  1. I think I’ve heard “Russia is in trouble” constantly for the majority of the war.

    I’m not believing anything until Russia surrenders, or I’m reading Putin’s obituary.

  2. I really wish I could believe that. I hope it’s true.

  3. The article mentions the Yuzivska shale gas field(s) being opened up for US investment, which is interesting in the sense that this is the same shale gas that Shell signed up for in 2013 and started to develop in 2014 when Putin decided to invade and destabilize eastern Ukraine.

  4. You’ve got no fear of the underdog. Thats why you will not survive.

    – Spoon

  6. America will want to protect their investment so possibly boots on the ground in that area?

  7. Let me give you my prediction…I know I’m preaching to the choir and I’m not doing it for upvotes.

    Trump and/or the Saudis are going to go after Russian oil.

    Either Trump is going to do it as the Senate wants, or the Saudis have already decided increase production and Trump will have to follow along. The real question is if the Saudis end up making US oil impossible to sustain at it’s higher prices.

    The deal with Ukraine is really about oil and gas, more importantly, leverage. My armchair, nobody, geopolitical analysis is this:

    Russia’s big reason for invading was to prevent their worst nightmare…and it just came true: Ukrainian oil and gas are going to compete with and replace Russian oil and gas.

    Furthermore, by the USA having first right of refusal in managing these assets…which will go to…Europe…guess who just got Russia’s old leverage against Europe?

    Trump and the USA.

    I think this was brilliantly played. It was a feint; a bait-and-switch. With the EU playing hardball with tariffs and the USA not well-positioned to provide LNG (especially with a trade war), bringing Ukraine’s *existing* infrastructure online means the USA are doing the expert work to supply the EU.

    Trump was never lying when he said that he would make sure the USA was protected in resource extraction. If his supermajors and geological concerns like Halliburton are there bringing assets out of energy fields…there will not be any tolerance of them being attacked.

    I dunno who really wrote this deal, but it was a masterstroke. Both the USA and Ukraine now have massive leverage over the EU.

  8. I’m hoping we see the ruZZian front collapse like it did during WWI.

  10. I hope Ukraine attacks Moscow 24hr before Putins parade cease fire.

  11. Russia has now annexed the US. I hope they crumble into dust and fast.

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