May 4, 2025
IndexBox has just published a new report: China – Phosphate Rock – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights.
The demand for phosphate rock in China is expected to fuel market growth over the next decade, with a projected CAGR of +3.6% in volume and +5.2% in value from 2024 to 2035. Market performance is anticipated to expand, reaching 451M tons and $91.1B by 2035.
Market Forecast
Driven by increasing demand for phosphate rock in China, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 451M tons by the end of 2035.
In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $91.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.
ConsumptionChina’s Consumption of Phosphate Rock
In 2024, phosphate rock consumption in China amounted to 306M tons, growing by 3.9% against the previous year. In general, consumption continues to indicate a buoyant expansion. Over the period under review, consumption hit record highs at 312M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.
The revenue of the phosphate rock market in China rose remarkably to $52.4B in 2024, growing by 6.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers’ margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption continues to indicate resilient growth. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.
ProductionChina’s Production of Phosphate Rock
In 2024, approx. 303M tons of phosphate rock were produced in China; growing by 3.2% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, production saw a strong expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 18%. Phosphate rock production peaked at 312M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.
In value terms, phosphate rock production expanded notably to $54.9B in 2024 estimated in export price. Overall, production showed a prominent increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 with an increase of 54%. Over the period under review, production attained the peak level in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in years to come.
ImportsChina’s Imports of Phosphate Rock
In 2024, overseas purchases of phosphate rock increased by 136% to 3.3M tons, rising for the second consecutive year after four years of decline. In general, imports posted significant growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 18,758%. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure in 2024 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.
In value terms, phosphate rock imports surged to $319M in 2024. Over the period under review, imports enjoyed significant growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 2,470%. Imports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.
Imports By Country
In 2024, Nauru (137K tons) constituted the largest phosphate rock supplier to China, with a 4.1% share of total imports. Moreover, phosphate rock imports from Nauru exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest supplier, Jordan (34K tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Egypt (16K tons), with a 0.5% share.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume from Nauru was relatively modest. The remaining supplying countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Jordan (+140.1% per year) and Egypt (+121.7% per year).
In value terms, Egypt ($89M), Jordan ($77M) and Lebanon ($13M) were the largest phosphate rock suppliers to China, with a combined 56% share of total imports. Peru, Nauru, Pakistan and Morocco lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 7.4%.
Peru, with a CAGR of +956.1%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
Import Prices By Country
The average phosphate rock import price stood at $96 per ton in 2024, waning by -8.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a sharp setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 295%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum at $2,348 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.
There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Egypt ($5,584 per ton), while the price for Nauru ($61 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Peru (+42.5%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.
ExportsChina’s Exports of Phosphate Rock
In 2024, phosphate rock exports from China declined notably to 82K tons, shrinking by -72% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, exports faced a abrupt descent. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 44%. The exports peaked at 548K tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.
In value terms, phosphate rock exports dropped remarkably to $18M in 2024. Overall, exports recorded a abrupt curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when exports increased by 180%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $108M. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of the exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.
Exports By Country
South Korea (60K tons) was the main destination for phosphate rock exports from China, with a 74% share of total exports. Moreover, phosphate rock exports to South Korea exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Japan (21K tons), threefold.
From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to South Korea totaled -8.9%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Japan (-17.0% per year) and Australia (+8.3% per year).
In value terms, the largest markets for phosphate rock exported from China were South Korea ($12M), Japan ($6.8M) and Australia ($67K), with a combined 99.9% share of total exports.
Among the main countries of destination, Australia, with a CAGR of +1.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced a decline.
Export Prices By Country
In 2024, the average phosphate rock export price amounted to $224 per ton, rising by 6.4% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw pronounced growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the average export price increased by 94%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.
There were significant differences in the average prices for the major foreign markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Japan ($323 per ton), while the average price for exports to Australia ($92 per ton) was amongst the lowest.
From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Japan (+5.4%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.