The latest hike of more than 400,000 barrels a day from June matched a similar increase announced last month, when the group made the shock decision to bring back triple the planned volume for May. The alliance — led by Saudi Arabia and Russia — has been reversing prolonged output curbs that were meant to support prices, but which cost it market share to rival drillers.
After the meeting, Saudi Arabia signaled further similar-sized increases could follow, according to delegates.
The move by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Nations and its allies has stoked bumper trading volumes. Timespreads, meanwhile, have also collapsed. The September-October Brent spread fell into contango — when later prices trade at a premium to earlier ones — from its opposite backwardated structure on Friday, signaling an impending glut.
Crude has slumped in 2025, and has returned to near a four-year low hit in April, as US President Donald Trump’s trade war threatened to derail growth, erode investor confidence and undercut energy demand. The dramatic policy pivot by OPEC+ has added momentum to the sustained selloff, which has made oil one of the worst performing major commodities of 2025.
The increase from OPEC+ “simply cannot be absorbed,” said Ajay Parmar, director of oil analytics at ICIS. “Demand growth is weak, particularly with the recent imposition of tariffs,” he said, flagging the “inevitability” of weaker Brent crude prices.
Morgan Stanley reduced price forecasts following the OPEC+ move, predicting $62.50 a barrel for Brent in the third and fourth quarters of 2025, $5 lower than previously seen, analysts including Martijn Rats said in a note. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Daan Struyven also cut their forecasts.