Democrats now lead by +3% in Generic Ballot Average: https://smokefilledroom.substack.com/p/which-party-is-on-track-to-win-the?r=2w9tr1

Posted by Alternative-Rate-379

24 comments

  2. Great, now if we could only find a few Generic democrats to vote for worth a warm bottle of spit.

  3. Is this a surprising trend or just general voter sentiment against the party in power that won the last election? Basically did Biden and the democrats got the same drop in 2020?

  4. Problem is you’re not really undoing Trumpism until that reads 60% or more. The Republican party has specialized in “breaking” things and then filibustering until they win an election. The fact Trump got reelected validates that strategy. They’ve done it for nearly 3 decades straight.

    I’m not sure it’s possible, but until rural areas turn on him or the Democrats/Independents successfully enter that space, you’re kinda stuck. And the Republicans know it, which is why their posture has completely changed from “the Constitution is sacred” (because it protected them) to “things aren’t working fast enough”

    As stupid as it is, the Dems will get blamed for not fixing it when they have a 1 person advantage for 4 years.

  6. Only 3% after this much of a fuck up? I’m not sure whether to congratulate them or to be worried about it.

  7. Great, do these “generic” ballots polls ever actually align with election results?

  8. The fact that it’s only +3 is pathetic. The conservatives are burning the house down around us and 50% of the country thinks it’s good.

  9. They also said we were leading last November. I’ll believe it after the mid-terms next year.

  10. They could be much higher if they were actually a well run party…

  11. I wish I was as brain dead as the median voter holy shit. That should be like +15 at least

  12. Every single old ass leader in the Democratic Party needs to step aside if they are 1 for 3 against Trump and can only manage a 3% advantage with all the insane shit Trump has enacted in his first 100 days.

  13. Notsure this will matter in gerrymandered states like Texas and Ohio, but it is encouraging.

  15. I don’t fucking trust polls at all now days. Cons have figured out how to fucking game them and it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re gaming other shit too. It’s all rigged.

  16. Considering all that has happened, that’s not really great news for Dems at all. It kind of backs up other polling that shows Congressional Dems have a lower approval rating than Trump.

    You need a vision, you need to be unified behind common goals, and you need to show you can fight and be effective in that fight. Right now it’s a bit all over the place. You got AOC/Bernie rallying everyone up while the other side of the party is downplaying it as a fringe part of the Democratic movement. Then you got people like Whitmer saying Trump is dangerous while smiling for photos beside him. Schumer is too busy typing up strongly worded emails. And then there is disarray at the DNC over funding challengers for Dem primaries.

  17. The Dem line hasn’t moved. The red line has shifted to something like “none/other/unsure”. Meaning, come campaign season the flood of cash and the bullshit tornado from Dear Leader will get them right back in line.

  19. There’s literally no reason for the differences to be much larger than we’re seeing until the D’s pull their heads out of their asses, stop playing the safe corporatist supporting role, and start putting out their own Project 2025 that simultaneously makes people say “I want that shit” and “that isn’t the boogeyman the Republicans keep saying it is” Stop responding to Trumpism at all. Stop saying ‘Well at least we aren’t those guys’ Stop being baited in to constantly going ‘oh well will you look at them now, do you really want that?’ You have time to foster candidates who aren’t BSC, do that.

  20. They might not even take the House with that. And the Senate map is so bad they need to be doing a lot better to have any shot at all.

    There’s always some incumbency backlash, I expect it will get more dramatic in a few weeks when there are tariff shortages in stores. But 42% will crawl over broken glass to vote GOP, and 20% wouldn’t pay attention until the week before the election even if there was a nuclear war.

  21. Ah I see destroying the whole us only gives +4%

  22. I wouldn’t get my hopes up. Trumpistan will find a way to extend their power to either corrupt the electoral process or outright avoid elections altogether.

  23. Democrats lead by +3% on the ballot makes it sound like they’ve gained ground. Looking at the chart, they haven’t. Republicans have just been shooting their foot off instead. Another indictment on the party that – even with the chaos of the last three months – they still aren’t presenting an appealing alternative to the voters besides “not Republican”

  24. Generic ballot polls are dumb. It’s basically, if you had a perfect candidate on both sides how would they fare?

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