WARSAW – Freshly confirmed as German chancellor, Friedrich Merz is expected to work on mending ties with Poland, a task easier said than done.
When Merz arrives in Warsaw on Wednesday, he is likely to find a friendly face in his Polish counterpart, Donald Tusk.
Even so, the Polish-German relationship remains ensnared in a tangle of unresolved grievances – from Polish demands for compensation for World War II victims to divergent views on Russia.
“With Merz in power and the Polish presidential election concluded [soon], there will be a unique chance to overcome this conundrum,” Piotr Buras, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ (ECFR) Warsaw office, said.
Anticipation is high in Warsaw, especially after the frosty ties between Tusk and Merz’s predecessor, Olaf Scholz.
In contrast, Merz was fêted like a leader when he visited in February, months before taking office.
The pre-election bonhomie also came with the pledge to aim for a Polish-German friendship treaty by June next year, an effort driven by Merz as Warsaw’s relationship with Paris has grown markedly warmer than its ties with Berlin in the past months.
Tusk is expected to ink a similar treaty with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, on Friday.
Poland hopes Merz’s ascent will give fresh impetus to bolstering Europe’s eastern security. The new German chancellor has promised a tougher, more decisive Ukraine policy and major new defence investments.
“Although Merz shies away from talking about grand projects, building a European – not just German – defence capability and deterring Russia will be a key test of his leadership,” Buras said.
Under Scholz, Germany had been painstakingly absent from efforts around shaping Europe’s policy towards Ukraine, spearheaded by Paris and London. But so has Warsaw, with Tusk playing a surprisingly subdued role so far, even as Poland holds the rotating EU Council presidency.
In their efforts to restore ties, both leaders are likely to face ghosts from the past and political landmines.
Tusk’s first stint as prime minister (2007–14) was marred by accusations of being too cosy with the Germans.
With the first round of Poland’s presidential elections on 18 May, Tusk will be wary of any photo ops that might cost his Civic Coalition ally Rafał Trzaskowski votes against Karol Nawrocki, the candidate of the right-wing nationalist Law and Justice party.
Merz, for his part, will need to take seriously Poland’s longstanding demands to create a Berlin memorial for Polish victims of Nazi Germany and renew talks on war reparations.
Another stumbling block may be Merz’s coalition partner, the Social Democrats (SPD), whom many in Warsaw distrust following Scholz’s tepid support for Ukraine following Russia’s invasion and former chancellor Gerhard Schröder’s championing of the Nord Stream pipelines.
(mk)