Only one third of the British public believes the government should increase defence spending to strengthen its military capabilities, according to a poll.
One fifth of those surveyed said the defence budget should be reduced to free up resources for other areas such as health.
The poll was carried out before the London Defence Conference at King’s College London this week, where senior ministers and military leaders will discuss the future of alliances, rearmament and conflicts such as Ukraine.
Britain spends about 2.3 per cent of its national income on defence. However, this will increase to 2.5 per cent from April 2027, with an ambition to reach 3 per cent in the next parliament.
Mark Rutte, the Nato secretary-general, has reportedly proposed that alliance members boost defence spending to 3.5 per cent and commit a further 1.5 per cent to broader security-related spending to meet President Trump’s demand for a 5 per cent target.
Rutte’s proposal could allow the US president to declare a win at a Nato summit in the Hague in June while not committing European nations and Canada to a 5 per cent pledge on military spending that many see as politically and economically unviable.
Mark Rutte has proposed that Nato members increase their defence spending to 3.5 per cent of the national budget, short of President Trump’s 5 per cent demand
EVELYN HOCKSTEIN/REUTERS
A US defence source said a 3.5 per cent target would make sense because in reality many allies would miss it but at least it would force them to increase their spending substantially because of the pressure to do so.
However, the poll suggested the British public may not be so enthused by such an idea.
Forty-five per cent of those surveyed believed the UK should not increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent. Thirty-six per cent said the UK should increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent, even if that means higher taxes and cutting other areas.
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Focaldata surveyed 2,330 adults in Great Britain between April 30 and May 2. Those who thought the UK should increase defence spending to 3.5 per cent were more likely to be older (above 65), male and politically engaged.
When asked their view on what the government should do on defence spending, 35 per cent said defence spending should increase, while 30 per cent said it should stay the same. Only 21 per cent said it should be reduced to free up resources for other areas.
James Kanagasooriam, chief research officer of Focaldata, said: “The British public’s relationship with defence spending is marked by quiet caution and mixed feelings rather than conviction.
“While the government’s ambition to reach 3 per cent of GDP is a level-headed reaction to the world we now live in, our data shows that only 35 per cent of voters firmly support defence spending increases today — and support thins quickly when trade-offs and costs to other public spending pots come into view.”
He said that in this political environment “‘welfare not warfare’ may turn out to be a rallying slogan — it’s a sentiment with latent public backing, particularly among younger voters and left-of-centre coalitions”.
He added: “Unless the political class finds compelling ways to communicate the costs of insecurity and the dividends of deterrence, there is a real risk that both ends of the political spectrum — the Greens on the left, Reform on the right — will gain from growing scepticism. Defence is no longer a unifying issue. It has the potential to become a new polarising fault line of British politics.”