Going by how 2024 went, I seriously doubt the SNP will have a major platform to initiate a referendum
At every election they say that a majority of MSPs elected is a mandate for independence regardless as to whether the majority of people actually vote for pro independence parties. Of course if they don’t get a majority then it isn’t a mandate for not having another referendum!
It’s been ignored before. Why would it be any different next year?
Should but won’t.
We’ll have the same arguments whatever the vote is, and likely be no nearer a resolution in 2036. Westminster won’t be giving out any referendums.
e: I appreciate some of you don’t like to hear this.
You can insist all you want John. Once we said no that was it. We’ll never be given the chance again.
He can ‘insist’ all he likes. Sturgeon’s Supreme Court case settled that question.
There is no mechanism in domestic or international law which requires Westminster to grant a referendum.
It is outwith the powers of the First Minister to insist on.
Politician with minimal likelihood of losing seat provides cut and paste statement from every other election in modern history.
To be honest, considering there is no legal mechanisms to force the issue, I think the SNP need to consider bringing unilaterally declaring independence to the table. At least as some sort of bargaining chip with Westminster.
It should simply trigger a declaration of independence. No further steps required.
So not even a majority of voters for independence, just a majority of MSPs.
This of course off the back of latest polling showing Indy MSPs to be the majority, whilst 60% of voters support non-Indy parties.
Does anyone apart from SNP leadership think MSPs would be a better metric than vote share?
Doesn’t matter what side of the fence you’re on. It is all of our interests to sit down and hash out a formal mechanism for triggering a referendum. The UK Government adopting a ‘no, sorry never going to happen’ is untenable in the short run and the SNP cannot keep flogging the horse of every parliamentary majority no matter the size means a referendum
It’s a moot point. The power lies with WM, whether people like it or not.
Focus on governing, prove why HR is more effective than WM, convince people that it’s the way forward. I support independence, but insisting we are due another referendum has done nothing to move the dial in recent years.
If they had no other policies at all then I would agree, but a vote for the Greens is not a vote for independence
It should, but it hasn’t.
Regardless of your outlook, be it no or yes, doesn’t it smart that we aren’t even ‘allowed’ to have a referendum or a vote?
Every single time a politician is asked ‘what is the route to leaving the UK if Scotland wanted to?’, there is no answer only waffle. Can’t get ‘permission’ to have a vote, can’t force one, can’t just UDI.
If the UK is truly an entity by consent, how can you leave if you decided to?
Didn’t seem all that insistent to me. Looked more like he was going through the motions.
But it won’t though.
The SNP will keep dangling this carrot year after year, and the nationalists will continue to believe that *this* time it’s really happening.
At this point this is just something every SNP leader has to say every election to appease the absolute throbbers inside the party who’ll throw a tantrum if the leadership ever so much as hint at anything less.
The Supreme Court put the issue to bed, and until we see something like 60%+ of voters supporting pro-independence parties (as opposed to the [38% in recent opinion polls](https://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/comments/1khj1qd/holyrood_voting_intention_constituency_snp_33_3/)) there’s absolutely no reason for Westminster to budge on the issue. They’ll just say there’s no public appetite for it and that’s the end of the conversation.
The “this one weird trick”-era of the SNP is thankfully ending. They’ve pissed away an entire decade going nowhere, utterly convinced that independence was just around the next corner, then the next one, then the next one, then the next one.
Good governance and a focus on devolution got the SNP Indyref 1 and it’ll get them Indyref 2, in time.
If, by then, the question basically boils down to “do you want defence and foreign policy to also be devolved to Edinburgh?” they’ll win hands down.
19 comments
Going by how 2024 went, I seriously doubt the SNP will have a major platform to initiate a referendum
At every election they say that a majority of MSPs elected is a mandate for independence regardless as to whether the majority of people actually vote for pro independence parties. Of course if they don’t get a majority then it isn’t a mandate for not having another referendum!
It’s been ignored before. Why would it be any different next year?
Should but won’t.
We’ll have the same arguments whatever the vote is, and likely be no nearer a resolution in 2036. Westminster won’t be giving out any referendums.
e: I appreciate some of you don’t like to hear this.
You can insist all you want John. Once we said no that was it. We’ll never be given the chance again.
He can ‘insist’ all he likes. Sturgeon’s Supreme Court case settled that question.
There is no mechanism in domestic or international law which requires Westminster to grant a referendum.
It is outwith the powers of the First Minister to insist on.
Politician with minimal likelihood of losing seat provides cut and paste statement from every other election in modern history.
To be honest, considering there is no legal mechanisms to force the issue, I think the SNP need to consider bringing unilaterally declaring independence to the table. At least as some sort of bargaining chip with Westminster.
It should simply trigger a declaration of independence. No further steps required.
https://i.redd.it/v54cawu6bjze1.gif
So not even a majority of voters for independence, just a majority of MSPs.
This of course off the back of latest polling showing Indy MSPs to be the majority, whilst 60% of voters support non-Indy parties.
Does anyone apart from SNP leadership think MSPs would be a better metric than vote share?
Doesn’t matter what side of the fence you’re on. It is all of our interests to sit down and hash out a formal mechanism for triggering a referendum. The UK Government adopting a ‘no, sorry never going to happen’ is untenable in the short run and the SNP cannot keep flogging the horse of every parliamentary majority no matter the size means a referendum
It’s a moot point. The power lies with WM, whether people like it or not.
Focus on governing, prove why HR is more effective than WM, convince people that it’s the way forward. I support independence, but insisting we are due another referendum has done nothing to move the dial in recent years.
If they had no other policies at all then I would agree, but a vote for the Greens is not a vote for independence
It should, but it hasn’t.
Regardless of your outlook, be it no or yes, doesn’t it smart that we aren’t even ‘allowed’ to have a referendum or a vote?
Every single time a politician is asked ‘what is the route to leaving the UK if Scotland wanted to?’, there is no answer only waffle. Can’t get ‘permission’ to have a vote, can’t force one, can’t just UDI.
If the UK is truly an entity by consent, how can you leave if you decided to?
Didn’t seem all that insistent to me. Looked more like he was going through the motions.
But it won’t though.
The SNP will keep dangling this carrot year after year, and the nationalists will continue to believe that *this* time it’s really happening.
At this point this is just something every SNP leader has to say every election to appease the absolute throbbers inside the party who’ll throw a tantrum if the leadership ever so much as hint at anything less.
The Supreme Court put the issue to bed, and until we see something like 60%+ of voters supporting pro-independence parties (as opposed to the [38% in recent opinion polls](https://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/comments/1khj1qd/holyrood_voting_intention_constituency_snp_33_3/)) there’s absolutely no reason for Westminster to budge on the issue. They’ll just say there’s no public appetite for it and that’s the end of the conversation.
The “this one weird trick”-era of the SNP is thankfully ending. They’ve pissed away an entire decade going nowhere, utterly convinced that independence was just around the next corner, then the next one, then the next one, then the next one.
Good governance and a focus on devolution got the SNP Indyref 1 and it’ll get them Indyref 2, in time.
If, by then, the question basically boils down to “do you want defence and foreign policy to also be devolved to Edinburgh?” they’ll win hands down.
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