Canadian purchases of US property have already been declining at an average rate of 14.5% annually between 2019 and 2024, hitting their lowest point in 15 years, even lower than during the COVID-19 pandemic’s peak.
If the current retreat continues, Florida alone could lose more than US$653 million in real estate transactions over the next two years, while Arizona could see a $366 million decline. Other top Canadian vacation destinations, like Hawaii, California, and New York, are also expected to experience hundreds of millions of dollars in potential losses.
Zoocasa’s report predicts this shift could spark a surge in Canada’s recreational real estate market, especially in vacation regions.
“While returning buyers could add to competition in already tight markets, many are likely to be retirees or snowbirds who would focus their purchases in vacation areas,” the report notes. Ontario’s cottage country, which has had a slow start this year, could especially benefit.
Royal LePage’s 2025 Spring Recreational Property Report forecasts a 4% increase in the mean price for Canadian cottages, with 70% of brokers reporting steady or rising demand compared to last year.