The conclave to select Pope Francis’s successor is set to open today, with Gozitan Cardinal Mario Grech featuring among the names touted for the papacy.
Vatican press insiders who spoke to Times of Malta say that Grech remains a strong candidate, although he is unlikely to be the first choice for many cardinals. But several cardinals could veer towards Grech as the waters begin to clear with each passing vote, they say.
Contenders will need to win the support of 89 cardinals, two-thirds of the 133 who will be voting at the conclave.
No candidate is believed to have that level of support for the very first vote, which will take place on Wednesday evening.
But insiders believe that the conclave is unlikely to drag on, with a new pope likely to emerge by Thursday evening or Friday morning.
“There is no appetite for a long conclave,” Christopher White, Vatican correspondent for the National Catholic Reporter told Times of Malta.
“A long conclave is usually a sign of a divided Church and sends out a bad message.”
Grech seen as a steady bet, but not a frontrunner
Grech’s name is not on the tip of people’s tongues in Vatican circles, according to Hendro Munsterman, a Catholic theologian and Vatican correspondent for Nederlands Dagblad, with other cardinals currently in the spotlight.
“He is not among the most popular names at the moment,” Munsterman says.
“But he is seen as a team player and that’s his strong point. There is consensus among all cardinals that the next pope must be a team player, unlike Pope Francis, who tended to do things alone.”
Meanwhile, White sees Grech as a steady, if unglamorous bet.
“Other names have risen and fallen as the weeks went by, but Grech’s name has consistently remained in the mix,” he says.
“Grech might not be a lot of people’s number one option, but many will see him as the next best thing if their preferred choice fails to gain support.”
White and Munsterman had previously told Times of Malta that Grech is among the best-known cardinals, having informally adopted the role of global ambassador for Pope Francis’s vision for the Church in recent years.
But Grech is likely to face stiff competition from several other cardinals, with Munsterman pointing to how talk in Vatican circles is currently focusing on three names in particular.
There is no appetite for a long conclave
The first is Italian Pierbattista Pizzaballa, a 60-year-old Italian believed to be particularly popular among the conservative wing of the Church (“he’s the new candidate of the right, Munsterman says”).
Another popular name is American Robert Prevost, seen as the centrist option capable of continuing Pope Francis’s work but at a more measured pace. Prevost is believed to be particularly popular in Latin America, having spent much of his career in Peru.
Meanwhile, Pablo Virgilio ‘Ambo’ David, a 66-year-old cardinal from the Philippines is rapidly emerging as the dark horse in the race and “could prove to be the surprise of the conclave,” Munsterman believes.
David is believed to appeal to the more progressive wing of the Church, but questions remain over whether he can win widespread support.
With the conclave set to open this morning, Grech finds himself among a second tier of names jockeying for position, together with others such as Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin and Spanish cardinal Cristóbal López Romero, Munsterman says.
133 cardinals from 70 countries will cast their vote
The conclave will bring together 133 cardinals, 18 more than those who voted in the conclave that elected Pope Francis in 2013. Another two cardinals who are also eligible to vote will be absent due to illness.
The conclave will also have a larger global reach than ever before, with cardinals hailing from 70 countries around the world, 22 more than in 2013.
Conclaves are typically relatively short affairs, although there are some notable exceptions.
One of the Church’s earliest conclaves in 1268 lasted almost three years, plagued by political infighting. By the time the deadlock was broken and Pope Gregory X was elected in 1271, exasperated locals had ripped the roof off the Viterbo palace where the conclave was being held and reduced cardinals’ rations to bread and water.
And although the next pope will almost certainly emerge from the 133 men entering the Vatican, there have been cases in which cardinals sprung a surprise, with all Catholic males technically eligible for the role.
In 1522, Dutch priest Adrian VI was, unbeknownst to him, elected pope after the 39 cardinals at the conclave initially failed to agree on a name. Three cardinals were promptly dispatched to inform a baffled Adrian VI of the good news, marking the start of his 20-month papacy.
However, Church faithful will be hoping for a swift and uneventful conclave.
The first vote is set to be taken on Wednesday evening, with a further two votes planned for Thursday morning.
If no agreement is reached by then, a further two votes will take place that same afternoon, with the process repeated each day until a pope is selected and the famous white smoke billows from the Sistine Chapel’s chimney.